Recently, the natural rubber market began to show signs of continuous weakening, and up to now, most of the obvious effects are fundamental changes, among which, from the point of view of the supply port, the most saying so far is that the trend of natural rubber is mostly in the seasonal weakening stage. The rainfall weather in China's external areas has basically eased, and with the increase of the cutting area, the overall volume of raw materials is expected to become more obvious. The cost-end support is expected to begin to strengthen, and the various changes on the cost-side have also become a focus of attention. Next, we will briefly talk about the main output of natural rubber in the world.
Thailand
Thailand production area according to the normal tapping seasonality, May-July is in the state of rapid growth of Thai output, the overall output of raw materials will show a significant increase. Up to now, the precipitation in Thailand's production areas has increased compared with the previous period, the northeast is normally tapped, the overall amount of raw materials is relatively fast, and the glue in the south is gradually coming out, but it has not yet entered the stage of rapid increase. According to the current overall output of Thailand, raw materials are released one after another, but in a relatively tight state. From the perspective of raw material prices, raw material prices show signs of a narrow decline, but still remain high, and recent changes can basically correspond to the current raw material output. I have heard that some processing plants have begun to purchase raw materials at reduced prices to replenish inventory and deliver pre-orders. Next, if Thailand has normal weather conditions, the increase in raw material production is expected to continue to heat up, and there is still room for raw material prices to decline.
Viet Nam
The seasonal output of Vietnam is similar to that of China. Up to now, the overall cutting state of Vietnam has been maintained at about 50%, but recently, Vietnam has been obviously disturbed by rainfall, and in the short term, raw material prices remain relatively stable, and the rain weather still exists in Vietnam in the following week, which supports the raw material price to a certain extent, but the recent downward trend of Tianjiao market is obvious. It is inevitable to drag the price of raw materials, some processing plants said that if Tianjiao futures continue to decline, then raw material prices may also be down.
Yunnan
According to the current situation in the producing areas of Yunnan, it is still disturbed by continuous rainfall, and tapping is blocked. Compared with today, some processing plants said that it was raining last night and today, and there were basically no raw materials to collect, but in terms of the overall situation in Yunnan, rainfall is only a short-term disturbance factor. After the weather improves, the overall supply in Yunnan will soon return to normal. Up to now, the local supply of raw materials in Yunnan is in a tight trend, and the local processing plant said that after the entry of some alternative indicators, the problem of raw material supply can be partially alleviated to a certain extent. From the perspective of the whole seasonal output of Yunnan, although the raw materials in Yunnan are in the stage of gradual increase, it is still difficult to meet the starting demand of processing plants in Banna. In the case of a substantial decline in the spot market, the weather conditions support the price of raw materials to some extent.
Hainan
Recently, the overall rainfall in Hainan has eased, and most areas are in a normal state of rubber production. it is understood that the daily rubber yield of the whole island can reach about 6000-7000 tons. As far as the current rubber yield is concerned, it is basically close to the highest daily output of the island last year. Compared with previous years, the amount of glue received is basically high, and the price of raw materials has also shown a significant downward trend. Up to now, the supply of concentrated milk in China is tight, and the market supply is mainly domestic concentrated milk. The change of supply pattern has further strengthened the influence of Hainan raw materials on the thick milk market.
