2,897
November 5, 2024, 3:42 PM
Today, the main rubber contract closed in a narrow range higher. Judging from recent situations, it ended the previous period of shock and decline and began to reverse. As of today, the main rubber contract closed at a price of 17880 yuan/ton, during which the high-end price reached 18000 yuan/ton.
macroscopic aspect: Overseas, U.S. GDP in the third quarter was 2.8% month-on-month, and the output gap continued to rise. Consumption, government spending, and equipment investment improved, and inventory investment fell. In October, the U.S. manufacturing PMI continued to bottom out, consumption remained resilient, and corporate investment and The real estate boom still needs to be stimulated by further monetary and fiscal easing; the U.S. election and the Federal Reserve meeting are imminent.
In China, policy efforts led to a significant improvement in the production side of China's manufacturing PMI in October. On the morning of November 4, the "China Macroeconomic Trends" dialogue meeting sponsored by China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute and hosted by the Hainan Reform and Development Research Foundation was held in Haikou. China's external macro policy disturbances are obvious. Under the influence of macro sentiment, commodities have generally moved upwards, while rubber has followed the trend of rising, which in turn has led to a narrow upward trend in the market.
fundamentals: As of now, periodic showers in Thailand have little impact on rubber tapping work. The northeast is in a period of vigorous production, and the south has increased month-on-month. The overall rubber output is still insufficient. The rubber price has declined, the weather conditions have gradually improved, and the overall output of raw materials has improved. The situation has improved, its purchase price has begun to decline, and cost-side support has been gradually in a weak state. The weather conditions in China's producing areas are good, and the rubber tapping work in the producing areas is progressing smoothly. However, cooling weather has recently begun to appear, which has affected the decline in dry content to a certain extent. The cutting suspension period is approaching, and the raw material supply may be supported. However, Thailand's heavy volume trend is relatively obvious, and costs are still relatively weak in the short term.
In terms of downstream demand, most companies 'equipment was running smoothly at the beginning of the month, some companies planned maintenance, and other all-steel tire companies controlled production, which caused a certain drag on the overall start-up. The shipment performance at the beginning of the month was average. In terms of the market, most agents prepared goods in advance before the price increase. However, the market was slow and the current social inventory was sufficient, and the willingness of channels to continue to replenish stocks was weakened. In addition, the terminal performance at the beginning of the month was poor, and the inventory was mainly absorbed between channels.
Judging from the current overall situation of rubber,The weather in rubber-producing countries has improved and precipitation has decreased. Rubber tapping operations have begun to be carried out on a large scale, and raw material prices have supported or continued to loosen., andDownstream rubber tire demand is generalWhen upstream production begins to show significant release, supply overflowspressure still existsIn the short term, there are basically no obvious positive results. At present, most of the rise in rubber is due to the improvement of the overall macro environment, and the sentiment of following up is more obvious.
