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November 12, 2024, 10:17 AM
Typhoon News:On November 12, according to weather news from China: Tiantu, the 25th typhoon this year (Tropical Storm Class, English name: Usagi; name source: Japan; name meaning: The constellation of Hina) was formed on the northwest Pacific Ocean in the early morning of today (12th). At 5 o'clock in the morning, its center is located on the ocean surface about 1470 kilometers east of Manila, the Philippines, which is 13.0 degrees north latitude and 134.5 degrees east longitude. The maximum wind force near the center is 8 (18 meters/s), the lowest pressure in the center is 998 hPa, and the radius of the seventh-level wind circle is 180-260 kilometers. It is expected that "Tiantu" will move rapidly to the west by north at a speed of about 30 kilometers per hour, gradually increasing its intensity, and approaching the ocean east of the Philippines.
In mid-November, there was a low pressure and three typhoons that had not stopped compiling after "Ginkgo" weakened. The typhoon weather was extremely dense. Moreover, the peak intensity of Typhoon Ginkgo once reached a super typhoon, and the strongest of Typhoon Taozhi once reached a typhoon level."Wanyi" and "Tiantu" will also reach typhoon or strong typhoon level in the future. Such intensity is rare in autumn typhoons in November.
Market analysis:It is not difficult to see from the typhoon weather path map that the final impact direction of the tropical depression "Ginkgo" is in the production areas of Vietnam, and the path direction of Typhoon "Tao Zhi" affects the production areas of Hainan. From the perspective of supply areas, Thailand, Vietnam and Hainan are the main supply areas of natural latex. This intensive typhoon mainly affects the production areas of Vietnam and Hainan. As the typhoon weather passes, the increase in rainfall has affected rubber cutting operations, and the output of glue raw materials has been blocked, which in turn raises raw material prices.
Judging from the seasonal output of natural rubber, China's production areas will enter a production reduction period in December, and the seasonal patterns of Vietnam's production areas and China's production areas are similar. Judging from the current situation, processing plants in Vietnam and China's production areas basically have to enter winter storage. The pace of stocking in advance is relatively obvious, and the demand for raw materials will be relatively high. However, due to the recent impact of successive typhoons, the rainfall and weather in the production areas of China and Vietnam have been relatively heavy, which has affected the stocking pace of processing plants in the production areas to a certain extent. The expectation of rising raw material prices is also relatively obvious. For the current port spot, cost-side support is relatively strong.
The supply of spot resources for imported concentrated milk in the sales area remainsrelatively few state, shipment from the carrierThere has been no obvious pressure on the aspect，In order to ensure that current port cargo holdersLimited willingness to lower will further support the market。The construction of downstream processing plants is currently relatively stable, but the domestic production and Vietnam are approaching the cut-off period, and downstream factories will also stock up in advance. Short-term demand also supports the spot price of concentrated milk.
Overall, in the next period, the impact on the cost side will be relatively obvious, and the overall room for decline in raw material prices near the cut-off period will be relatively limited. In the absence of other obvious changes in supply and demand, the spot price of concentrated milk may remain narrow. Explore space.
