Changes in China's automobile export countries（August 26）

Compared to the full year of 2025, the ranking of China's top ten car export destinations in the first half of 2026 showed significant changes. Among them, Russia made a strong rebound to reclaim the top spot, Brazil surged to second place, while Italy and Algeria newly entered the top ten. Meanwhile, Mexico and the UAE experienced sharp declines, and Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan dropped out of the list. Additionally, the top five markets with the highest year-on-year growth were Russia, Brazil, the UK, Algeria, and Australia.

Russia
448,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 148%

In the first half of 2026, Russia regained its position as the top destination for Chinese auto exports. In 2025, Chinese auto exports to Russia plummeted by 46% year-on-year, totaling 582,700 units, due to multiple restrictive policies such as increased scrapping taxes, higher import tariffs, crackdowns on parallel imports, and tightened certification requirements.

Howver, exports began to recover in 2026, with 448,200 units exported to Russia in the first half of the year—a year-on-year increase of 267,400 units, placing China at the forefront among all export destinations, with a growth rate of approximately 148%.

The recovery in exports is primarily driven by three key factors: first, the concentrated inventory clearance by automakers in 2025 created an extremely low base, while 2026 saw channel inventories returning to a reasonable range, with large-scale dealer restocking leading to a surge in China's vehicle exports to Russia; second, the long-term market vacuum left by the withdrawal of European, American, Japanese, and Korean automakers persists, as imported models from these brands face high taxes and supply shortages, giving Chinese vehicles a distinct cost-performance advantage; third, localized industrial layouts mitigate policy risks, with Great Wall Motors' Tula plant in Russia achieving stable production, Geely leveraging its joint venture factory in Belarus, and Chery collaborating with Russian domestic enterprises to conduct KD component assembly operations, effectively offsetting the cost pressures from high tariffs and scrapping taxes.

Additionally, from the consumer perspective, due to fuel shortages and soaring oil prices in many parts of Russia, car owners have increasingly turned to electric vehicles. According to data from the Autostat industry analysis agency and the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, from January to May this year, plug-in hybrid vehicles sold 24,600 units in the Russian new car market, marking a 125% year-on-year surge, while pure electric vehicles sold 4,460 units, up 19% year-on-year. Moreover, due to fuel supply shortages, a large number of Russian car owners have recently queued up to retrofit their vehicles to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) propulsion.

Brazil
410,800 units, up 155% year-on-year

In 2025, Brazil ranked as the fifth-largest destination for Chinese auto exports, with a volume of 322,100 vehicles. In the first half of 2026, the country surged to the second position with 410,800 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 249,500 vehicles, trailing only Russia and emerging as a key growth hub in South America.

The core trigger for the market boom was the time window of tariff policies. Brazil stipulated that starting from July 1, 2026, the import tariffs for pure electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles, and conventional hybrid passenger vehicles imported in complete vehicles would be uniformly raised to 35%. In response, automakers concentrated on bulk shipments in the first half of the year, rushing to fill channel inventories before the tariffs took effect, driving a short-term surge in exports. Among these, new energy vehicles accounted for 299,800 units, representing over 70% of total exports. As a result, Brazil surpassed Belgium to become the largest market for Chinese new energy vehicle exports.

Additionally, the Brazilian government has stipulated that vehicles imported in the form of complete knocked-down (CKD) and semi-knocked-down (SKD) kits will also be subject to a 35% high tariff starting January 2027, which is one and a half years earlier than originally planned. In response, Chinese automakers are accelerating local production. Among them, BYD's passenger car plant in Brazil was completed and began operations in July 2025, with the 100,000th new energy vehicle recently rolling off the production line. Great Wall Motors' plant in Brazil was completed and began production in August 2025, with a capacity of 50,000 vehicles. Changan Automobile's joint venture with Brazil's CAOA Group in Goiás state commenced production in late March 2026. GAC Group also plans to initiate the construction of a complete vehicle factory in Brazil during the fourth quarter of 2026. Geely, meanwhile, aims to achieve localized mass production by leveraging the Renault factory in Brazil.

On the consumption side, Brazil's economic recovery has driven sustained demand. Recently, the Brazilian Association of Automotive Manufacturers (Anfavea) forecasted that Brazil's auto sales will reach a record high of around 3 million units in 2026, up 12.1% year-on-year, marking the highest level since 2014.

Britain

255300 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 87%

In the first half of 2026, Chinese cars exported 255300 vehicles to the UK, with a year-on-year increase of 118800 vehicles, an increase of about 87%. The UK has become a benchmark model for Chinese cars to deeply cultivate mature markets in Western Europe.

For Chinese car companies, the core advantage of the UK market is that it has not followed the EU in imposing high anti subsidy tariffs on Chinese made pure electric vehicles, and the trade environment is relatively friendly. Coupled with local electrification support policies, new energy vehicles have become the core engine of export growth. In the first half of the year, China exported 181300 new energy vehicles to the UK, accounting for over 70% of the total exports to the UK.

From the consumer perspective, despite the strict threshold set by the 650 million pound electric vehicle subsidy plan launched by the UK in 2025, the vast majority of imported Chinese car models find it difficult to apply for subsidies. However, relying on advantages such as long range, advanced intelligence, and price, the competitiveness of Chinese car products has not been significantly impacted, channels continue to sink, and terminal sales steadily increase.

According to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), in the first half of 2026, Chinese car companies sold approximately 183000 vehicles in the UK, with a market share of 16.1%, surpassing Japanese (about 12%) and Korean (about 10%) brands. Among them, SAIC MG, Chery series (including Chery, Oumengda, Jaeco brands), and BYD are the top three main players.

On June 17th, BYD Executive Vice President He Zhiqi posted on social media that BYD has delivered its 100000th new energy vehicle in the UK, making it the fastest brand in the history of the UK automotive market to reach a 5% market share. He Zhiqi said that he has already checked in on BYD's first flash charging station in the UK, and BYD plans to lay 300 flash charging stations in the UK before the end of the year.

Australia
237800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 66%
In the first half of 2026, the export volume of Chinese automobiles to Australia reached 237800 units, with a year-on-year increase of 94368 units, an increase of about 66%. Australia has become the fourth largest destination country for Chinese automobile exports, and will rank eighth for the whole year of 2025.

The Australian automotive market is mature, and consumers have strict requirements for safety, quality, and environmental standards. It has long been monopolized by European, American, and Japanese brands, while in recent years, Chinese brands have quickly broken through with their three electric technology and high cost-effectiveness.

From a consumer perspective, according to data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industry (FCAI) in Australia, in June of this year, the sales of cars from China (including Tesla produced in Shanghai, about 8600 units) were 46600 units, and the sales of cars from Japan were 27100 units. FCAI stated that China has now become the largest source of automotive imports for Australia.

In the June Australian car brand sales chart, Toyota ranked first with 19124 vehicles, followed closely by BYD with 18881 vehicles, only 243 vehicles behind Toyota, which has long held the top spot in sales. Great Wall Motors, MG, and Chery are also among the top ten best-selling brands in the local market.

At the policy level, Australia currently has no special tariff barriers for Chinese cars, and the import environment is relaxed, coupled with tax incentives related to electric vehicles, which is favorable for the import of Chinese car models. Chinese car companies continue to improve their local dealer networks, layout regional parts warehousing and maintenance centers, solve overseas car after-sales pain points, and continuously improve user reputation.

Belgium
219700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47%
In the first half of 2026, China's automobile exports to Belgium reached 219700 units, an increase of 47% compared to the same period last year's 149600 units.

Belgium still undertakes the core distribution function of China's new energy vehicles radiating to Western Europe, Northern Europe, and Eastern Europe. Relying on the mature port logistics of Antwerp Bruges Port, the improvement of the transit trade system, and the advantages of customs clearance in the EU single market, Belgium has become a key gateway for China's new energy vehicles to land on the European continent. In the first half of the year, China exported 209200 new energy vehicles to Belgium, accounting for as much as 95%. As a result, Belgium is the second largest market for China's new energy vehicle exports, second only to Brazil.

Of course, the export data to Belgium includes a large number of transit vehicles, not all of which are used for local terminal consumption in Belgium. However, the continuous increase in transit scale also indirectly confirms the overall demand expansion of Chinese cars in Europe. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the European market will experience a landmark change in May and June 2026, with Chinese car companies surpassing Japanese car companies in monthly new car sales for two consecutive months. Belgium, as the core hub for Chinese new energy vehicles entering Europe, is an important window for this round of demand growth.

In the domestic terminal market of Belgium, the sales of Chinese car companies are also increasing. Taking June as an example, the MG brand ranked eighth on the new car sales chart in Belgium, with a year-on-year surge of 516% to 2106 units, setting a new historical high for the brand in Belgium. Zero Run and BYD have also achieved significant growth.

Mexico
210100 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of -25%
By 2025, China will export 625200 cars to Mexico, surpassing Russia to become the largest destination country for Chinese car exports. However, in the first half of 2026, the export volume of Chinese cars to Mexico was only 210100 units, lower than the 280000 units in the same period last year, and Mexico's ranking among Chinese car exporting countries also fell to sixth. The market landscape has undergone a disruptive change, with the core incentive being Mexico's imposition of high tariffs starting from January 1, 2026.

According to Mexico's new tariff policy, starting from January 1, 2026, Mexico will officially impose 5% to 50% tariffs on 1463 categories of goods from non free trade partner countries such as China, India, Thailand, and South Korea. Among them, the import tariffs on passenger cars have skyrocketed from 20% to 50%, and the tariffs on core components such as engines and transmissions are concentrated at 30% to 36%. The significant increase in the cost of importing complete vehicles has affected the price competitiveness of Chinese made cars in the Mexican market to a certain extent.

It is worth noting that although the export volume of Chinese cars to Mexico has declined, in the second half of last year, before the tariffs came into effect, car companies hoarded a large amount of goods and formed a large inventory locally, so the impact on the sales side in the short term is relatively limited. In the first half of 2026, Chinese car companies sold a total of 137500 vehicles in Mexico, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, and the market share increased from 14% in the same period last year to 17%.

Guillermo Rosales, President of the Mexican Automobile Dealers Association (AMDA), predicts that the market share of Chinese brands will continue to increase in the future, but the growth rate may slow down. Analysts also believe that as inventory is gradually digested, Chinese brands may face certain pressure in Mexico in the second half of the year.

Italy
154900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 132%
By 2025, Italy will not be among the top ten destinations for Chinese automobile exports. Entering the first half of 2026, Italy has risen to seventh place with a record of 154900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 132%, becoming the only European country to be added to the list. As a core automobile consumer country in Southern Europe, Italy has a huge stock of fuel vehicles and started its electrification transformation relatively late. In the past two years, the government has increased subsidies, and China's high cost-effective pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and ordinary hybrid models have quickly seized the market.

It is reported that Italy will launch a new round of subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles in September 2025, which will last until June 2026. The total subsidy amount is 600 million euros, with individual consumers receiving a maximum subsidy of 11000 euros and small and micro enterprises receiving a maximum subsidy of 20000 euros for the purchase of commercial electric vehicles. Italy has also implemented specific welfare tax policies for company vehicles, providing significant tax incentives for electric vehicles to encourage the transition to electrification.

With this boost, the Italian automotive market has also rebounded. Taking June 2026 as an example, new car sales in Italy reached 146400 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Among them, BYD sold 6057 vehicles, ranking in the top ten of the month's brand list and ninth place. The MG brand sold 4295 vehicles, the Omonda and Jaeco brands sold 4086 vehicles, and the Leapmotor brand sold 3366 vehicles. In addition, Chinese car companies such as Geely and Shenlan sold a total of about 19000 vehicles in the month, increasing their market share to 13%. In addition, due to the incomplete charging facilities in Italy, plug-in hybrid vehicles have become a more realistic breakthrough for Chinese brands in Italy compared to pure electric vehicles.

The Philippines
148700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21%
In the first half of 2026, Chinese automobile exports to the Philippines reached 148700 units, higher than 122600 units in the same period last year. As a result, the Philippines has become the eighth largest destination country for Chinese automobile exports, rising one place from the same period last year.

The Philippines is a prominent emerging market in Southeast Asia. The Philippines has a large population base and a sustained economic recovery, with a steady release of automotive demand. Previously monopolized by Japanese brands such as Toyota and Mitsubishi, Chinese cars quickly seized the market with their cost-effectiveness and first mover advantage in new energy vehicles.

The long-term stable policy dividend is the core support. The Philippines will extend the zero tariff policy for electric vehicles and components until 2028, exempting pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles from import tariffs, while the tariff rate for ordinary fuel vehicles is 20% to 50%. In addition, pure electric vehicles are exempt from consumption tax, while plug-in hybrid vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles are subject to a 50% reduction in consumption tax, with a significant policy tilt. In the first half of the year, China exported 126000 new energy vehicles to the Philippines, accounting for 84.8% of the total automobile exports to the Philippines, demonstrating strong growth momentum.

On the market side, Chinese brands such as BYD, Geely, Chery, Jetour, Great Wall, and Changan are working hard. Looking ahead, the Philippine automotive market is still facing high oil prices and macro pressures in the short term, but the rapid increase in electrification penetration rate has brought structural opportunities to the market. With more Chinese brands entering the Philippine market and the continuous enrichment of electric vehicle product lines, the competitive landscape is expected to be further reshaped.

United Arab Emirates
146200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of -36%
In the first half of 2026, Chinese automobiles exported 146200 vehicles to the United Arab Emirates, lower than the 228900 vehicles exported in the same period last year. As a result, the United Arab Emirates has become the ninth largest destination country for Chinese automobile exports, while it ranked second in the same period last year.

As for the reason, the UAE is not only a terminal consumer market, but also an important automotive transit hub in the Middle East and Africa. Last year, Chinese car companies sent a large number of vehicles to Dubai, relying on the UAE's low tariffs and mature logistics network, and then distributed them to multiple countries in Saudi Arabia, North Africa, and West Africa, pushing up the base for the same period last year. In addition, since 2026, the uncertainty of the Strait of Hormuz shipping route has continued to disrupt Middle Eastern shipping, causing some traders to adjust their routes and divert some goods to other Middle Eastern ports, no longer choosing the United Arab Emirates as a transit warehouse.

In the long run, the profit margin of bicycles in the Middle East market is higher than the global average. AlixPartners consulting firm has predicted that by 2030, Chinese car brands will occupy 34% of the market share in the Middle East and Africa.

The underlying demand in the Middle East market remains strong, and consumers' recognition of China's automotive intelligence and cost-effectiveness continues to increase. Brands such as Hongqi, Wangwang, BYD, Xiaopeng, Jike, and Zhiji have all made layouts. In April of this year, Ideal Auto signed a contract with local dealers to introduce the Ideal L series models to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. In addition to the new car market, Chinese car brands have also rapidly emerged in the second-hand car market in the United Arab Emirates.

Algeria
143000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 235%
In 2025, Algeria did not enter the top ten exporting countries of Chinese automobiles. In the first half of 2026, China's automobile exports to Algeria reached 143000 units, an increase of 100300 units compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 235%. As a result, Algeria has replaced Iran to enter the top ten and become an important core market for Chinese car companies in North Africa.

The significant rebound in exports this round is driven by multiple resonant factors. As a populous country in North Africa, Algeria's potential demand for car replacement continues to be released, and the market favors fuel economy passenger cars. The demand for tax incentives for entry-level new energy vehicle models is increasing. The local tax system has formed a relatively favorable competitive environment for cost-effective Chinese models, and superimposed the "the Belt and Road" economic and trade cooperation dividends, Chery, Haval, Chang'an, BYD, etc. are accelerating to expand their local distribution networks.

However, it is worth noting that this round of high growth is based on a lower base in the same period of 2025. Algeria's foreign exchange control and import quota constraints still exist, and industrial policies continue to guide the localization of automobile production. There is a long-term "ceiling" in the growth space of pure vehicle imports. At the same time, the market is welcoming more entrants and competition is intensifying. Recently, the Opel brand under Stellantis Group signed a memorandum of understanding with AGM Holdings in Algeria, planning to build a vehicle production base and engine factory locally.