Chinese Tire Exports: Volume Up But Revenue Down Nearly RMB 900 Per Ton(Oct 8)

Chinese Tire Exports: Volume Up But Revenue Down Nearly RMB 900 Per Ton

Export Data: Volume Growth Cannot Offset Price Decline

On September 18, the General Administration of Customs released export data for the first eight months: national rubber tire exports reached 6.63 million tons, up 2% year-on-year, while export value reached RMB 110.64 billion, down 3.1% year-on-year. For the Chinese tire industry, this report card simultaneously reflects demand support from overseas markets and price pressure behind the growth.

Calculated from export value and weight, the average export price of rubber tires in the first eight months was approximately RMB 16,700 per ton, down about 5% year-on-year, equivalent to a reduction of nearly RMB 900 per ton in export revenue. This does not mean every tire product dropped 5% in price. Product grade, export destination, and exchange rate fluctuations all affect the RMB-denominated comprehensive average price. However, what is certain is that the growth in export volume is insufficient to offset the decline in unit revenue.

Growth Slowing, Inventories Rising

The growth rate is also slowing. In the first half of the year, rubber tire export volume grew 4.9% year-on-year while value declined 1%; by the first eight months, the volume growth rate narrowed and the value decline expanded. Chinese tires are still shipping overseas, but the difficulty of sustaining growth is increasing.

Data from the China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch shows that in July, 13 sample enterprises produced 37.23 million tires, up 7.3% year-on-year, while inventories increased 3% month-on-month and 6.7% year-on-year. Order intake weakened, with some enterprises adopting production control strategies and distributors primarily restocking based on essential needs. This suggests that manufactured tires require longer timeframes and greater sales effort to digest. Inventory ties up capital, promotions compress price space, and enterprises must balance order preservation with turnover risk control.

Cost Pressure and Global Demand Divergence

Cost pressure continues to mount. In September, the China Rubber Industry Association disclosed that some carbon black grades were approaching RMB 12,000 per ton. If new costs cannot be transmitted to selling prices in a timely manner, profit margins on subsequent orders will be further squeezed.

Overseas markets show varying temperatures. USTMA forecasts released in August indicate that U.S. tire shipments will decline 1.8% in 2026. However, the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers Association disclosed second-quarter data showing 15% growth in all-season tire sales and 13% growth in truck and bus replacement tires within its statistical scope.

These data suggest that global demand is not weakening in sync, and growth opportunities are diverging across different regions and categories. However, localized market recovery does not automatically translate into orders for Chinese suppliers. Product adaptation, channel coverage, and delivery service remain competitive priorities. The current global landscape for Chinese tires can be summarized as "shipments supported, prices pressured, opportunities diverging."

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