Natural Rubber Prices Jump Sharply on Unexpected Inventory Drawdown(Nov 13)

November 13, 2026

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Natural rubber prices have jumped sharply, with recent data showing a 4.29% increase to CNY 19,033 per tonne. The surge is linked to unexpected inventory drawdown and rebounding raw material costs. Supply-side challenges include disrupted tapping in Thailand due to rain and drought effects in Indonesia, while downstream factors highlight reduced tire operating rates and slowed exports. Despite low finished-goods inventory, the short-term outlook for natural rubber prices remains strong with limited downside. Long-term forecasts predict production cuts driven by climate impacts, aging trees, and leaf disease, favoring sustained price levels. CNAUTO, a leading platform for sourcing automotive equipment from certified suppliers, facilitates seamless domestic and global cooperation for buyers and manufacturers.

Natural Rubber Prices Jump Sharply on Unexpected Inventory Drawdown

Natural rubber prices have risen sharply recently. Data from SCI (100ppi.com) show that as of November 12, the domestic natural rubber market price was around CNY 19,033 per tonne, up 4.29% from CNY 18,250 per tonne the previous Friday. On one hand, inventory destocking beat expectations; on the other, raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded, providing support to natural rubber prices.

Supply support: no inventory build in peak season, destocking instead. As of November 8, combined bonded and general-trade natural rubber inventory in the Qingdao area stood at 547,600 tonnes, down 14,400 tonnes, or 2.57%, week on week. Raw material prices stopped their decline and rebounded, once again supporting the natural rubber cost side. Rain in southern Thailand has disrupted tapping once again, while high temperatures and drought in Indonesia have capped output, pushing natural rubber raw materials to stay high overall. As of November 12, raw material prices in the Thai producing areas were higher: smoked sheet (RSS) at THB 84.20 per kg, field latex at THB 78.25 per kg, and cup lump at THB 72.10 per kg.

Downstream: tire operating rates lower YoY, rigid-demand buying only. As of November 6, the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate stood at 64% and the all-steel tire operating rate at 58%. Entering peak season, tire makers continued to control production; cooling in the north weighed on replacement-market sales and slowed the shipment pace. On exports, Middle East tensions and EU anti-dumping and countervailing duties reduced Chinese tire exports, while accelerating capacity build-out in Indonesia and Vietnam also diverted raw-material export cargoes. Customs data show that China exported a cumulative 6.4503 million tonnes of tires in January–September 2026, up 0.93% year on year; cumulative export growth is still positive but under pressure.

Outlook. The short-term view is firm and range-bound, with limited downside; the medium- and long-term production-cut logic supports far-month contracts. With inventories falling and rain in southern Thailand and drought in Indonesia continuing to disrupt tapping, the raw-material cost support is firm. Tires hold low finished-goods inventory and have restocking needs, leaving little room for a sharp fall; short-term natural rubber prices are easy to rise and hard to fall, trading high and firm. Over the long term, the impact of the super El Niño event lags and typically fully unfolds six to twelve months after the event peaks, so far-month contracts still carry a climate production-cut premium. Structural production-cut logic remains unchanged: aging trees in major producing countries, Indonesian leaf disease, and declining Vietnamese output. ANRPC forecasts the 2026 global natural rubber supply-demand gap at around 280,000 tonnes, wider than the previous year. Institutions broadly hold that a real trend rally must await confirmation of production-cut data in the first half of next year.

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Natural Rubber Prices Jump Sharply on Unexpected Inventory Drawdown(Nov 13)

Natural Rubber Prices Jump Sharply on Unexpected Inventory Drawdown