Truck and bus tire sales surged 12.5%
The US tire market will present a "two-faced situation" in 2024: domestic production capacity continues to shrink and import dependence reaches a new high.
1. Dramatic changes in the market structure: replacement market is booming across the board vs. weak growth in the supporting market
The US tire market will show significant differentiation in 2024, with the replacement market growing across the board and the supporting market performing poorly. USTMA data shows:
• Truck tire replacement volume soared 12.5% year-on-year to 23.4 million
• Light truck tire replacement volume increased 7% to 36.7 million
• Passenger car tire replacement volume increased slightly by 1.3% to 222 million
The supporting market encountered a cold snap, with only light truck tires achieving a positive growth of 13.6% (6.7 million), while medium truck and bus tires fell 5.7% (43.1 million) and 8% (5.7 million) respectively.
2. The dilemma of domestic manufacturing: production capacity contraction and factory closures
The domestic tire industry in the United States has shrunk for the third consecutive year:
• Passenger tire production fell 4.1% to 91.7 million
• Light truck tire production fell 0.9% to 23.2 million
• Truck and bus tire production fell 4% to 11.9 million
Industry giants' adjustments exacerbated the capacity crisis:
√ Bridgestone and Sumitomo Rubber each closed one US factory
√ Goodyear gradually eliminated the truck tire production capacity of the Danville plant
√ It is expected that the domestic truck tire production capacity will be reduced by 4-5 million in 2025
3. Import dependence intensifies: price advantage drives market share reconstruction
In 2024, US tire imports will grow across the board:
• Light truck tire imports soared 26.1% to 39.6 million
• Truck and bus tire imports increased 8% to 19 million
• Imports of passenger car tires reached 168.9 million, accounting for 75% of the replacement market
4. Restructuring of the global supply chain: the rise of new forces in Southeast Asia
Cambodia has emerged as a dark horse:
• Imports of passenger car tires surged 67% to 8.9 million
• Imports of light truck tires doubled to 3.8 million
• Imports of truck and bus tires surged 16 times to 1.2 million (ranking as the fifth largest source country)
Chinese companies led the expansion of production capacity:
New factories of Sailun, GM, and Doublestar contributed more than 20 million annual production capacity
Vietnam maintains price competitiveness:
• Truck and bus tire exports increased by 13.7%
• Light truck tire exports increased by 36.9%
• Passenger car tire exports increased by 36%
The rise of Serbia, a new force in Europe:
√ Light truck tire exports doubled to 1.5 million
√ Annual production capacity of the five major factories exceeds 11 million
5. Decline of traditional exporting countries: Japan and South Korea are squeezed by both sides
• Japan's exports to the US fell across the board: truck and bus/light truck tires fell by 19%, and passenger car tires fell by 4.7%
• South Korea fell across the board: passenger car tires fell by 25%, light truck tires fell by 14.5%, and truck and bus tires fell by 15.1%
6. China's tire export transformation breakthrough
Subject to tariff barriers:
Passenger car tires have withdrawn from the list of major US import sources
Truck and bus tire exports fell by 8.2% to 937,000 (ranked sixth)
The results of industrial transfer are evident:
√ Southeast Asian production bases hedge trade risks
√ Cambodia and other third countries have achieved significant results in capacity layout
[Trend Analysis]
The US tire market is undergoing profound changes, and the continued weakening of local manufacturing capabilities is in sharp contrast to the rising dependence on imports. In a market environment dominated by price wars, emerging Southeast Asian production bases with cost advantages are reshaping the global tire supply chain. As trade protection policies continue to increase, the global layout of multinational companies' production capacity will become the key to victory.
