International rubber market on April 10, 2025

Futures market performance: ​

The domestic futures market showed a divergent trend after opening on April 9, with the main contracts of butadiene rubber and No. 20 rubber hitting the limit down. The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that from the closing settlement on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the price limit of natural rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 8%, the hedging margin ratio will be adjusted to 9%, and the speculative margin ratio will be adjusted to 10%. ​

According to the Tonghuashun Futures data, as of 13:46 on April 10, the rubber futures stock price was 15,015 yuan/ton, up 505 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 3.48%, the highest was 15,350 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,140 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 624,200, and it opened at 14,330 yuan/ton today. According to the data from Jintou.com, the main price of rubber is 14330.00 yuan/ton, the price of rubber 2505 is 14045.00 yuan/ton, the price of rubber 2509 is 14330.00 yuan/ton, and the price of rubber 2601 is 15260.00 yuan/ton. ​

Spot market situation: International rubber prices have shown an upward trend again recently, and prices fluctuate in the historical high range. Lekshmi Nair, senior economist of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, said that global natural rubber production is expected to be lower than consumption for the fifth consecutive year in 2025. Demand in countries such as China, India and Thailand has been growing, and global rubber production is still lagging behind because last year's prices were still not attractive for expansion. According to Trading Economics data, rubber futures prices are currently about 205 cents per kilogram, which has risen by nearly 4% this year. ​

Analysis of influencing factors: ​

Supply side: Thailand, the largest producer, is expected to further reduce supply. The Thai Meteorological Department warned that localized thunderstorms may occur in southern Thailand this weekend, causing damage to crops such as rubber trees. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries expects global rubber production to grow 0.3% to 14.9 million tons this year. Low prices over the past seven or eight years have made farmers in many producing countries reluctant to replant and newly plant rubber trees, switching to other more profitable crops such as oil palm. ​

Demand side: With demand growing in China, India and other countries, global rubber demand is expected to grow at a faster rate of 1.8% to 15.6 million tons. The tariff war launched by the United States may cause short-term chaos in international trade, and some industry insiders are worried that it will limit demand in China, the largest buyer of rubber. Rubber is an important raw material for tires, and the shortage of rubber production will help maintain the firmness of tire prices, which hit a 13-year high at the end of last year. The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) predicts that U.S. tire shipments will increase by 0.9% in 2025.​

The intensification of global trade frictions has greatly affected the crude oil market and also had an indirect impact on the rubber market, causing analysts and traders to reassess the global rubber demand outlook.