WTO: Middle East Conflict Increases Global Trade Risks in 2026
Geneva, March 19 (Xinhua) (Reporter Jiao Qian) The World Trade Organization released its latest global trade outlook report on the 19th, predicting that the growth rate of global goods trade in 2026 will be 1.9%, a significant decline compared to the growth rate in 2025. WTO economists warn that the current Middle East conflict may further drag down global trade growth.
The report shows that due to the surge in trade of artificial intelligence-related products and companies importing in advance to avoid the U.S. government's excessive tariffs, global goods trade is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2025, exceeding expectations.
WTO Director-General Iweala stated that day that global trade has a certain resilience. However, affected by the Middle East conflict, the continuous rise in energy prices may increase global trade risks and may have spillover effects, affecting food security and putting cost pressure on consumers and businesses.
The report points out that if crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices continue to rise, the growth rate of global goods trade in 2026 will decrease by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4%.
WTO economists believe that if the Middle East conflict does not last long and spending related to the artificial intelligence industry remains strong throughout 2026 to 2027, there is still some upward potential for global trade. The growth rate of global goods trade in 2026 may increase by 0.5 percentage points to 2.4%.
The report shows that in 2025, the surge in demand for artificial intelligence-related goods offset the negative impact of rising tariffs and uncertainty on global trade. Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods increased from $3.43 trillion in 2024 to $4.18 trillion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, accounting for 42% of the total global trade growth in 2025.
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