[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Weekly Review (October 26)

Figure 1: Shandong market price of STR20 MIX                                      Figure 2: Zhejiang market price of ordinary bulk imported from Thailand

dry rubber

Natural rubber market prices rose within a narrow range this week. As the rainfall in China's foreign producing areas has eased, the output of raw materials has continued to increase, and the purchase prices of raw materials are expected to fall. The positive support on the supply side has begun to weaken. Although China's natural rubber stocks are still being removed from warehouses, the removal rate is slow. Demand for all-steel tires on the demand side is still acceptable, while semi-steel tires remain prosperous. In the short term, there is still support for rubber prices on the demand side, but downstream factories still have resistance to high raw materials, and rainfall in China's foreign producing areas has eased. Cost-end support began to weaken, and in the later period, rubber prices may be suppressed.

natural latex

This week, China's concentrated milk offer basically remained relatively strong. The futures market rose in mid-week, which to a certain extent drove the sentiment of spot prices for concentrated milk to follow the rise. However, as the rainfall and weather in China's foreign producing areas eased, raw material glue began to increase in volume, cost-side support declined, and the overall downstream wait-and-see mentality was heavy. The enthusiasm for getting goods was average, and there was some pressure on traders to ship, which in turn suppressed the room for spot price increases and only maintained the quotation relatively firm.

Market outlook forecast:

1、中国外产区降雨天气或存缓和预期，季节性上量阶段，原料价格支撑预期走弱；

2、预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率小幅波动；

3、中国青岛库存量或存去库趋势，高库存压力有所缓和；

4、汇率、美联储加息等。