[Natural Rubber]: Monthly Rubber Review (November 2023)

dry rubber

In November, China's natural rubber spot market maintained a high and volatile trend. The overall supply of natural rubber in major production areas in Southeast Asia showed a seasonal increase. The peak season of cutting was conducive to the release of raw materials. However, recent rainfall still exists in the production areas, and raw material prices remain high. China's production areas have also entered a production reduction period as scheduled. Yunnan production areas have basically ended rubber collection operations at the end of this month. The purchase prices of raw materials have performed strongly, and there is still support at the bottom of rubber prices. The demand side has gradually entered the off-season at the end of the year. The demand for terminal replacement has weakened. The inventory of finished products has accumulated. There are still weak expectations for companies to start construction. The enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials has been suppressed. The demand for natural rubber has declined. The upward pressure on prices has increased. In the short term, natural rubber may maintain wide fluctuations.

natural latex

In November, the price trend of China's natural latex market remained relatively stable. After entering November, downstream product companies did not usher in the peak season as scheduled. The overall orders were not strong, the enthusiasm for covering positions was poor, and the trading atmosphere on the venue was cold, which dragged on spot prices. However, abnormal weather disturbances in major Southeast Asian producing areas still affected the release of new rubber. There is a suppression on the release of new rubber. The US dollar offers from overseas concentrated milk processing factories have performed strongly, and the cost support is relatively stable. There is not much spot in circulation in the superimposed sales area. Traders are reluctant to sell and ship goods, and the relative support price remains firm.

Market outlook forecast:

In January and December, rainfall in major Southeast Asian producing areas may ease, and Chinese producing areas will gradually enter the cutting suspension period;

2. Downstream starts in December may fall within a narrow range;

In March and December, Qingdao's inventory continued the trend of removing inventory, and social inventory pressure declined.

4. Pay attention to China's macro policies and news trends.