[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (December 5)

Analysis of natural rubber market price on December 5

index

On December 5, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1450/ton, down US$15/ton from the previous trading day, or 1.02%.

market analysis

futures market

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, and some areas have begun to increase in a narrow range. A few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices fluctuate within a narrow range.

China: Weather conditions in China's production areas have returned to normal, and raw material output has also gradually recovered. Cutting has been stopped in China's Yunnan production areas, and the price of raw material glue has not yet been available.

Demand: At the beginning of the month, some all-steel tire companies planned maintenance, which caused a certain drag on the overall operating rate. Semi-steel tire companies performed relatively well at start-up, and most of them maintained a high starting status. Overall shipments at the beginning of the month were slow, and the inventory of all-steel tire companies remained at a high level. In terms of the market, market transactions were sporadic at the beginning of the month, terminal demand was insufficient, and the market price policy was still unclear. More channel merchants digested inventory and replenished sporadically. Under the guidance of no obvious favorable conditions, downstream replenishment was cautious.

Futures spot price list

market outlook

The overall supply of natural rubber in the main producing areas of Southeast Asia shows a seasonal increase. The peak season of cutting is conducive to the release of raw materials. However, the recent production areas still have the impact of rainfall, and the follow-up of glue output is limited. China's Yunnan production areas have stopped cutting, and new rubber production has dropped significantly., raw material costs are firm, and there may be support at the bottom of natural rubber. The short-term amount of imported rubber arriving in Hong Kong may continue to increase, and the total social inventory has limited changes. The demand side has gradually entered the off-season at the end of the year, and the demand for terminal replacement has weakened. The operating rate of China's downstream all-steel tire enterprises has dropped, and the pressure on goods sales has gradually increased. On the whole, positive factors in the early period were traded on the market, there were no new hype points in the short term, and there was insufficient upward driving on the market. At the same time, the commodity market was short, and it is expected that rubber will remain weak in the short term.