[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Weekly Review (December 14)

Figure 1: Shandong market price of STR20 MIX                                      图2：浙江市场泰国进口普通散装价格 

dry rubber

Natural rubber market prices fell within a narrow range this week. Judging from the current supply port situation, the recent decline in output in China's production areas is in conflict with the expectation of a gradual increase in output in overseas production areas at the end of the rainy season. The purchase price of raw materials is basically in a narrow range of fluctuations, and upstream production profits are still At a relatively low level, there is limited room for loosening raw material costs. Continuous purchases of goods on the demand-side market are showing signs of fatigue. The production and sales pressure of all-steel tire companies has become prominent, and production cuts have increased, which in turn suppresses their sentiment on raw material procurement. Expectations for improving transactions in the spot market are limited, and the continued decline in port inventories has been suppressed. On the whole, if there is no obvious long-short stimulus on the supply and demand sides of the Tianjiao market, the Tianjiao market will be weak in driving upward and downward, and most of it will continue to operate in shock.

natural latex

This week, China's concentrated milk offers remained weak and volatile. From the supply side, China's Hainan producing areas have stopped cutting at the end of December, and the pace of glue release in Southeast Asian producing areas has been slow. The raw material market has been high. Costs are still effective in the face of market support; On the downstream side, the performance of finished products orders from latex products factories is not strong, the pace of raw material consumption is slow, and inquiries are cautious to make up positions, which provides insufficient support to the market. As the weather conditions in Thailand's producing areas improve, the market's bearish sentiment remains unabated. Under dual pressure, the natural latex market may maintain a weak and volatile performance in the short term.

Market outlook forecast:

1、国外产区降雨天气或存缓和预期，季节性上量阶段，原料价格支撑预期走弱，中国产区临近停割期，成本支撑走高；

2、预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率或将下滑；

3、中国青岛库存量或存去库趋势，高库存压力有所缓和；

4、汇率、美联储加息等。