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December 25, 2023, 4:50 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on December 25
index
On December 25, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1500/ton, up US$10/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.67%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date
|
Previous period: RU Futures
|
|
main contract
|
closing price
|
|
opening price
|
Low-end price
|
High-end price
|
closing price
|
RU01
|
RU05
|
RU09
|
|
December 25
|
13920
|
13830
|
13980
|
13905
|
13715
|
13905
|
13990
|
|
December 22
|
13775
|
13745
|
13940
|
13910
|
13735
|
13910
|
13965
|
|
rise and fall
|
145
|
85
|
40
|
-5
|
-20
|
-5
|
25
|
|
date
|
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)
|
|
NR main force
|
NR01
|
NR05
|
NR09
|
|
December 25
|
10640
|
10590
|
10860
|
11165
|
|
December 22
|
10570
|
10440
|
10860
|
11320
|
|
rise and fall
|
70
|
150
|
0
|
-155
|
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, and some areas have begun to increase in a narrow range. A few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices fluctuate within a narrow range.
China: Hainan production area has entered into a ban on cutting ahead of schedule. At present, some processing plants have begun to shut down. China's Yunnan production area has stopped cutting, and the price of raw material glue is not yet available.
|
price type
|
December 22
|
December 25
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
54.1
|
54.5
|
0.4
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
45
|
45.5
|
0.5
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
10400
|
10400
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
11600
|
12100
|
500
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
12300
|
13300
|
1000
|
Yuan/ton
|
On the demand side: The overall start-up of all steel tire sample enterprises still have lower expectations, and the overall operation is weak, which will alleviate the pressure on finished product inventory to a certain extent. In terms of the market, the shortage of goods in the all-steel tire replacement market has basically eased. Heavy snow has further weakened the demand for terminal replacement. Agents and dealers have little enthusiasm for replenishing goods. Coupled with bearish prices for the next month, market transactions have remained light.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
December 22
|
December 25
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
12783
|
12933
|
150
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1490
|
1500
|
10
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
11900
|
11950
|
50
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
10200
|
10500
|
300
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
10900
|
11100
|
200
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
2010
|
1955
|
-55
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
1127
|
972
|
-155
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.165
|
7.1525
|
-0.0125
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2102
|
0.2105
|
0.0003
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
Judging from the current supply port situation, China's production areas have recently entered a cut-off period. Coupled with the fact that the actual output of overseas production areas has fallen short of expectations, factories outside China are winter reserves and normal production rhythm, which has strong support for raw material prices. The overall demand for domestic sales on the demand-side is weak, which relatively suppresses its sentiment on raw material procurement, and suppresses the continued reduction of port inventories. On the whole, the natural rubber market is still dominated by bullish factors. Before the speculation of selling and purchasing stocks comes to fruition, rubber prices may continue to remain strong.
