[Natural Rubber]: Monthly Rubber Review (December 2023)

dry rubber

This month, China's natural rubber spot market rebounded after falling. At the beginning of the month, the rainy weather in Southeast Asian production areas eased. Overseas supply was in a relatively peak season. Raw material prices fell within a narrow range. Continuous purchases in the demand-side market showed signs of fatigue. Pressure on production and sales of all-steel tire companies was prominent. Production and sales increased, which in turn suppressed their sentiment on raw material procurement, and spot market transactions remained weak. Spot prices began to increase in mid-month. On the one hand, China's production areas have gradually entered a cut-off period and output declines. Foreign production areas have frequent rainfall and weather, which has limited the growth rate of production during the peak season. In addition, some companies have sufficient foreign trade orders, and some companies have scheduled production in 2024. Orders, automobile production and sales data are relatively optimistic, as well as rumors of purchasing, purchasing and selling, and speculation have boosted rubber prices continue to improve.

natural latex

The price trend of China's natural latex market rose significantly this month. From the supply side, China's Hainan production areas have stopped cutting at the end of December, and the glue release pace in Southeast Asian production areas has been slow. The raw material market has all been high. Costs are still effective in the face of market support. Coupled with the appreciation of the Thai baht, factory processing costs have put pressure on the price, and US dollar shipping and cargo offers have gone up. With no pressure on spot supply in the sales area, traders have slightly increased their offers and shipped goods, and some of them are reluctant to sell. The "buy up" sentiment of downstream product companies reflects the enthusiasm for inquiries and buying has improved. The focus of market negotiations on real orders has increased.

Market outlook forecast:

January. Rainfall weather in major Southeast Asian producing areas may ease in January, and Chinese producing areas have officially entered a cut-off period;

2. Downstream starts in January may fall within a narrow range;

In March and January, Qingdao's inventory continued the trend of being removed from the warehouse, and social inventory pressure declined.

4. Pay attention to China's macro policies and news trends.