Analysis of natural rubber market price on August 15
index
On August 15, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1335/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.
market analysis
futures market
|
date
|
Previous period: RU Futures
|
|
main contract
|
closing price
|
|
opening price
|
Low-end price
|
High-end price
|
closing price
|
RU01
|
RU05
|
RU09
|
|
the 15th day of the 8th
|
12830
|
12775
|
12845
|
12805
|
12805
|
12820
|
11825
|
|
August 14
|
12995
|
12770
|
13020
|
12830
|
12830
|
12820
|
11840
|
|
rise and fall
|
-165
|
5
|
-175
|
-25
|
-25
|
0
|
-15
|
|
date
|
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)
|
|
NR main force
|
NR01
|
NR05
|
NR09
|
|
the 15th day of the 8th
|
9450
|
9585
|
9780
|
9380
|
|
August 14
|
9435
|
9570
|
9780
|
9375
|
|
rise and fall
|
15
|
15
|
0
|
5
|
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: There are still disturbances in rainfall and weather in foreign production areas, the volume of raw materials has been blocked, and raw material prices have increased within a narrow range.
China: Yunnan's production areas in Hainan are basically in a stage of steady increase in volume. Rainfall has moderated and raw material prices have remained relatively low. Rainfall has been relatively frequent in Hainan's production areas recently, but actual demand has been relatively weak. The purchasing sentiment of processing plants has slowed down., raw material prices fell within a narrow range.
|
price type
|
August 14
|
the 15th day of the 8th
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
41.6
|
41.7
|
0.1
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
37.6
|
37.8
|
0.2
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
10500
|
10500
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
9400
|
9400
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
10700
|
10500
|
-200
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
10700
|
10500
|
-200
|
Yuan/ton
|
Demand: The volume of foreign trade orders is sufficient, and the utilization rate of enterprises 'capacity remains high. Currently, foreign trade shipments are relatively concentrated, overall inventories are running at a low level, production capacity is insufficient, and overall supply is tight. In terms of the market, the terminal market performed generally, and most of them maintained demand.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
August 14
|
the 15th day of the 8th
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
11800
|
11800
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1335
|
1335
|
0
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
10520
|
10520
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
8200
|
8200
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
9050
|
9100
|
50
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
2310
|
2285
|
-25
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
1030
|
1005
|
-25
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.2783
|
7.2958
|
0.0175
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2138
|
0.2135
|
-0.0003
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
The RMB exchange rate has depreciated in the period, the profits from customs clearance in the US dollar market have been meager, and the sentiment of import traders to replenish goods has weakened. Although the increase in overseas new rubber has not been as expected, as far as the current social inventory is concerned, there has been no obvious trend of dewarehousing, and pressure on the warehouse still exists., to a certain extent, suppressing the space for rubber to rise. China's major production areas have recently experienced disturbances in phenological conditions such as weather. The output of raw materials has been limited. Pressure on the supply side has not yet been highlighted. In the short term, raw materials still provide support for the price side. Although the construction of downstream product companies has maintained a high level at present, they still continue to focus on just needed purchases after actual purchases. No obvious demand highlights have yet appeared. The contradiction between supply and demand has not yet intensified. In the short term, the market is mainly in a narrow range of fluctuations.
