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September 4, 2023, 4:49 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on September 4
index
On September 4, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1460/ton, which was stable from the previous trading day.
market analysis
futures market
|
date
|
Previous period: RU Futures
|
|
main contract
|
closing price
|
|
opening price
|
Low-end price
|
High-end price
|
closing price
|
RU01
|
RU05
|
RU09
|
|
September 4
|
14280
|
13965
|
14735
|
14100
|
14100
|
14000
|
12800
|
|
September 1
|
13350
|
13330
|
14160
|
14160
|
14160
|
14140
|
12935
|
|
rise and fall
|
930
|
635
|
575
|
-60
|
-60
|
-140
|
-135
|
|
date
|
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)
|
|
NR main force
|
NR01
|
NR05
|
NR09
|
|
September 4
|
10455
|
10470
|
10400
|
10550
|
|
September 1
|
10625
|
10635
|
10700
|
10470
|
|
rise and fall
|
-170
|
-165
|
-300
|
80
|
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: There are still disturbances in rainfall and weather in foreign production areas, the volume of raw materials has been blocked, and raw material prices have increased within a narrow range.
China: Affected by typhoons, rainfall and weather have increased, and rubber tapping work has been blocked. Driven by futures, the purchasing sentiment of processing plants has warmed up, pushing up raw material prices significantly higher. Rainfall in Yunnan's production areas eased, but the purchasing sentiment of dry rubber factories was high, driving up raw material prices.
|
price type
|
September 1
|
September 4
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
44.2
|
45
|
0.8
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
40.55
|
41.35
|
0.8
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
10800
|
11700
|
900
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
9700
|
9900
|
200
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
11100
|
12400
|
1300
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
11600
|
12400
|
800
|
Yuan/ton
|
On the demand side: At the beginning of the month, the start of maintenance enterprises has gradually returned to normal levels, and the foreign trade order volume of all-steel and semi-steel tires is relatively sufficient, which has formed certain support for the start level of enterprises. At the beginning of the month, the company continued to ship with regular shipments, and the price policy continued.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
September 1
|
September 4
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
12767
|
13117
|
350
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1460
|
1460
|
0
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
11520
|
11470
|
-50
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
9100
|
9500
|
400
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
10100
|
10350
|
250
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
2640
|
2630
|
-10
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
1393
|
983
|
-410
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.2843
|
7.2803
|
-0.004
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2136
|
0.2131
|
-0.0005
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
Driven by the strong strength of natural rubber last week, rubber prices remain relatively strong today. Recently, the fundamentals of natural rubber have been improving frequently, including good high-frequency tire data, improved heavy truck sales data in August, a slight loosening of China's natural rubber stocks at the high level, a decline in Thailand's natural rubber exports, and improved demand for concentrated milk, which led to the conversion of some factories from full latex to concentrated milk and national natural rubber wheel storage, etc. As well as the macro sentiment driving the rise of different commodities in turn, Tianjiao ushered in a long-lost surge. However, high inventory pressure of natural rubber still exists. In the short term, with various positive support, rubber is relatively firm at a high level, but we must always pay attention to the risk of chasing up.
