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September 6, 2023, 4:34 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on September 6
index
On September 6, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1460/ton, up US$10/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.69%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date
|
Previous period: RU Futures
|
|
main contract
|
closing price
|
|
opening price
|
Low-end price
|
High-end price
|
closing price
|
RU01
|
RU05
|
RU09
|
|
a 9 - 6
|
14100
|
14065
|
14350
|
14230
|
14230
|
14160
|
12860
|
|
September 5
|
14070
|
13985
|
14290
|
14130
|
14130
|
14075
|
12785
|
|
rise and fall
|
30
|
80
|
60
|
100
|
100
|
85
|
75
|
|
date
|
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)
|
|
NR main force
|
NR01
|
NR05
|
NR09
|
|
a 9 - 6
|
10575
|
10555
|
10550
|
10640
|
|
September 5
|
10450
|
10475
|
10450
|
10550
|
|
rise and fall
|
125
|
80
|
100
|
90
|
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: There are still disturbances in rainfall and weather in foreign production areas, the volume of raw materials has been blocked, and raw material prices have increased within a narrow range.
China: Rainy weather in Hainan's production area still affects normal rubber cutting operations. Spot prices of concentrated milk have improved within a narrow range, promoting a better rubber harvest sentiment in processing plants and supporting raw material prices to remain firm at high levels. Rainfall in Yunnan's production areas eased, but the purchasing sentiment of dry rubber factories was high, driving up raw material prices.
|
price type
|
September 5
|
a 9 - 6
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
45.3
|
45.5
|
0.2
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
41.45
|
41.55
|
0.1
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
11700
|
11700
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
9900
|
9900
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
12500
|
12600
|
100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
12500
|
12600
|
100
|
Yuan/ton
|
On the demand side: All steel tyre maintenance companies have resumed construction, while semi-steel tyre companies have continued to start at a high level. There is room for recovery in the overall operating rate. In January, the performance of new orders from all steel tire sample enterprises was differentiated. Foreign trade orders from some small-scale enterprises have declined. The overall foreign trade order volume of other enterprises has been relatively stable, and new orders from semi-steel tire enterprises have performed sufficiently.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
September 5
|
a 9 - 6
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
12917
|
12783
|
-133
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1450
|
1460
|
10
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
11450
|
11550
|
100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
9400
|
9400
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
10250
|
10250
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
2680
|
2680
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
1213
|
1447
|
233
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.3073
|
7.3304
|
0.0231
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2123
|
0.2123
|
0.0000
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
In September, the world's main rubber producing areas are in the peak season for rubber tapping, and output is expected to rebound further month-on-month. However, short-term rainfall has affected the development of rubber tapping work and limited raw material output. In late September, the downstream may usher in a traditional peak season, and demand will improve month-on-month. Coupled with the recent frequent police introduction of a car boost policy in China, it is expected to increase China's demand for self-packaging and replacement of automobiles. Recently, the supply of standard rubber and mixed rubber to Hong Kong has remained low. Natural rubber stocks in Qingdao Port have continued to be slightly removed from warehouses. The decline in inventories has stimulated the spot price of Thai mixed rubber to rise strongly. Recently, the market sentiment to go long is still strong, and it is expected that the natural rubber market may show a strong and stable operation in the short term.
