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November 6, 2023, 4:42 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on November 6
index
On November 6, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1465/ton, down US$5/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.34%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date
|
Previous period: RU Futures
|
|
main contract
|
closing price
|
|
opening price
|
Low-end price
|
High-end price
|
closing price
|
RU01
|
RU05
|
RU09
|
|
November 6
|
14260
|
14020
|
14285
|
14165
|
14165
|
14240
|
14230
|
|
November 3
|
14230
|
14200
|
14320
|
14245
|
14245
|
14330
|
14340
|
|
rise and fall
|
30
|
-180
|
-35
|
-80
|
-80
|
-90
|
-110
|
|
date
|
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)
|
|
NR main force
|
NR01
|
NR05
|
NR09
|
|
November 6
|
10735
|
10735
|
11040
|
11150
|
|
November 3
|
10835
|
10835
|
11100
|
11150
|
|
rise and fall
|
-100
|
-100
|
-60
|
0
|
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, some areas have begun to increase within a narrow range, and a few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices have begun to fall within a narrow range.
China: Weather conditions in China's production areas have returned to normal, raw material output has also gradually recovered, and raw material prices have been relatively firm.
|
price type
|
November 3
|
November 6
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
52.5
|
52.8
|
0.3
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
44.95
|
45.35
|
0.4
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
11700
|
11700
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
9800
|
9800
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
12600
|
12500
|
-100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
12600
|
12500
|
-100
|
Yuan/ton
|
Demand side: It is understood that most companies have maintained stable start-up operations, and the inventory of some all-steel tire companies has risen rapidly, and inventory and production are controlled. Affected by weak overall demand in October, the shipment performance of all-steel tire companies fell short of expectations, and domestic sales shrank. Market transaction prices were mixed. Market demand is weak, and merchants at all levels have weakened their enthusiasm to purchase goods. In addition, the regular seasonal off-season factors have increased, and the market's bearish attitude towards terminal demand has intensified. Some merchants had disguised promotional policies for shipments last month, but they continued in the new month. The new round led the increase by 2%-3%. Other companies followed up, but they all implemented them in the middle and late months of the month. Due to constraints on demand, the actual transaction price of more market transactions weakened.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
November 3
|
November 6
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
13000
|
12850
|
-150
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1470
|
1465
|
-5
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
12080
|
12030
|
-50
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
9700
|
9600
|
-100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
10500
|
10400
|
-100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
2165
|
2135
|
-30
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
1245
|
1315
|
70
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.3334
|
7.2988
|
-0.0346
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2083
|
0.2096
|
0.0013
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
Recently, as precipitation in Southeast Asian producing areas has eased, raw material increase expectations have been strong, purchase prices have begun to fall within a narrow range, and cost support has weakened. However, raw material and spot prices in foreign producing areas will remain high in the short term, which still provides support for prices. On the downstream side, the overall shipment performance of the replacement market is average. The overall inventory of agents is relatively high and sufficient. The downstream shipment is relatively slow and the sentiment for buying goods is not high. It is cautiously bearish on the future outlook. In the short term, the natural rubber market may show a volatile and weak trend.
