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[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (November 15)

96,227
November 15, 2023, 4:33 PM

Analysis of natural rubber market price on November 15

index

On November 15, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1520/ton, up US$40/ton from the previous trading day, or 2.70%.

market analysis

futures market

date

Previous period: RU Futures

main contract

closing price

opening price

Low-end price

High-end price

closing price

RU01

RU05

RU09

November 15

14450

14370

14515

14495

14495

14615

14650

November 14

14290

14290

14480

14450

14450

14575

14630

rise and fall

160

80

35

45

45

40

20

 

date

Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)

NR main force

NR01

NR05

NR09

November 15

10970

10970

11330

11660

November 14

10870

10870

11280

11660

rise and fall

100

100

50

0

 

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, and some areas have begun to increase in a narrow range. A few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices fluctuate within a narrow range.

China: Weather conditions in China's production areas have returned to normal, raw material output has also gradually recovered, and Yunnan's production areas are close to stopping cutting, and raw material prices are relatively firm.

price type

November 14

November 15

rise and fall

units

raw material prices

Thailand

glue

51.5

51.7

0.2

baht/kg

cup glue

46.1

46.2

0.1

baht/kg

Yunnan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

11800

11800

0

Yuan/ton

rubber block

9800

9800

0

Yuan/ton

Hainan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

12300

12300

0

Yuan/ton

Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)

12300

12300

0

Yuan/ton

 

Demand side: It is understood that there are certain differences in the current start-up of all steel tire companies, and most of them flexibly control production based on their own inventory conditions. Currently, most companies start at 60%-70% of the time. Overall shipments are slow and finished products have sufficient inventory. In terms of market shipments, social stocks of all-steel tires are sufficient, terminal demand is insufficient, delivery of goods through channels is relatively slow, and inventory is mainly digested between channels, which has intensified the bearish mentality towards the future market.

Futures spot price list

price type

November 14

November 15

rise and fall

units

price of finished products

Shandong

China All Latex

13183

13150

-33

Yuan/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 standard glue

1480

1520

40

us dollars/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

12240

12300

60

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Hainan

9550

9550

0

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk

10350

10350

0

Yuan/ton

the current price difference

Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

2210

2195

-15

Yuan/ton

Main force-China All Latex

1267

1345

78

Yuan/ton

relevant exchange rate

us dollar against the RMB

7.3103

7.2657

-0.0446

Yuan

Thai Baht to RMB

0.2066

0.2083

0.0017

Yuan

 

market outlook

Recently, the rubber market has fluctuated higher, and the overall supply of natural rubber in major producing areas in Southeast Asia has shown a seasonal increase. The peak season for cutting is conducive to the release of raw materials. However, the market's concerns about the supply of raw materials in Thailand's producing areas have begun to materialize, and raw material prices have remained high. China's Yunnan producing areas have gradually entered the cutting suspension period. The purchase prices of raw materials have performed firmly, and there is still support at the bottom of rubber prices. Downstream foreign trade orders have shrunk, finished product inventories have accumulated, demand for natural rubber has weakened, and there is insufficient momentum to continue to rise. Combined with the arrival of imported rubber in the port may continue to increase. The expectation of domestic standard rubber in Qingdao Gangkou District is strong. The removal of Qingdao's total inventory has slowed down, upward pressure on prices has increased, with short-term rubber prices or high consolidation.