92,071
November 21, 2023, 4:56 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on November 21
index
On November 21, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1500/ton, down US$20/ton from the previous trading day, or 1.32%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date
|
Previous period: RU Futures
|
|
main contract
|
closing price
|
|
opening price
|
Low-end price
|
High-end price
|
closing price
|
RU01
|
RU05
|
RU09
|
|
November 21
|
14420
|
14030
|
14470
|
14090
|
14090
|
14265
|
14315
|
|
November 20
|
14220
|
14215
|
14430
|
14370
|
14370
|
14535
|
14435
|
|
rise and fall
|
200
|
-185
|
40
|
-280
|
-280
|
-270
|
-120
|
|
date
|
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)
|
|
NR main force
|
NR01
|
NR05
|
NR09
|
|
November 21
|
10735
|
10735
|
11200
|
11460
|
|
November 20
|
10965
|
10965
|
11365
|
11460
|
|
rise and fall
|
-230
|
-230
|
-165
|
0
|
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, and some areas have begun to increase in a narrow range. A few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices fluctuate within a narrow range.
China: Weather conditions in China's production areas have returned to normal, raw material output has also gradually recovered, and Yunnan's production areas are close to stopping cutting, and raw material prices are relatively firm.
|
price type
|
November 20
|
November 21
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
51.8
|
51.9
|
0.1
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
46.4
|
46
|
-0.4
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
11800
|
11900
|
100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
9800
|
9800
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
12200
|
11900
|
-300
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
12200
|
11900
|
-300
|
Yuan/ton
|
Demand: The social inventory of all-steel tires is relatively sufficient, terminal demand is weak, goods delivery is slow, and transactions between channels are sporadic. In addition, most brand agents have completed the annual task volume, and their willingness to purchase goods in batches has been further weakened. Overall, agents 'regular models are mainly out of stock, and sporadic purchases are made up to ensure the normal supply of regular specifications, and the overall demand performance is further weakened.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
November 20
|
November 21
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
13300
|
13383
|
83
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1520
|
1500
|
-20
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
12300
|
12130
|
-170
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
9600
|
9600
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
10350
|
10350
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
2070
|
1960
|
-110
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
1070
|
707
|
-363
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.2031
|
7.1515
|
-0.0516
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2092
|
0.2074
|
-0.0018
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
The overall supply of natural rubber in the main producing areas of Southeast Asia shows a seasonal increase. The peak season is conducive to the release of raw materials. However, the market's concerns about the supply of raw materials in Thailand's producing areas have begun to materialize, and raw material prices remain high. China's Yunnan producing areas have gradually entered a suspension. During the cutting period, the purchase price of raw materials has performed strongly, and there is still support at the bottom of rubber prices. Coupled with the trend of Qingdao's inventory continuing to be removed from the warehouse, there is still room for rubber prices to rise. The demand side has gradually entered the off-season at the end of the year. The demand for terminal replacement has weakened. The inventory of finished products has accumulated. There are still weak expectations for companies to start construction. The enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials has been suppressed. The upward pressure on prices has increased, and short-term rubber prices may be mainly consolidated.
