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December 4, 2023, 4:38 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on December 4
index
On December 4, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1465/ton, down US$5/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.34%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date
|
Previous period: RU Futures
|
|
main contract
|
closing price
|
|
opening price
|
Low-end price
|
High-end price
|
closing price
|
RU01
|
RU05
|
RU09
|
|
December 4
|
13460
|
13230
|
13460
|
13300
|
13300
|
13480
|
13600
|
|
December 1
|
13620
|
13340
|
13750
|
13395
|
13395
|
13570
|
13685
|
|
rise and fall
|
-160
|
-110
|
-290
|
-95
|
-95
|
-90
|
-85
|
|
date
|
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)
|
|
NR main force
|
NR01
|
NR05
|
NR09
|
|
December 4
|
10085
|
10085
|
10635
|
11135
|
|
December 1
|
10165
|
10165
|
10680
|
11200
|
|
rise and fall
|
-80
|
-80
|
-45
|
-65
|
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, and some areas have begun to increase in a narrow range. A few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices fluctuate within a narrow range.
China: Weather conditions in China's production areas have returned to normal, and raw material output has also gradually recovered. Cutting has been stopped in China's Yunnan production areas, and the price of raw material glue has not yet been available.
|
price type
|
December 1
|
December 4
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
52.4
|
52.5
|
0.1
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
45.7
|
45.05
|
-0.65
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
12000
|
--
|
--
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
9800
|
9900
|
100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
12100
|
11500
|
-600
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
11700
|
11500
|
-200
|
Yuan/ton
|
On the demand side: The start-up performance of tire companies is differentiated. Most semi-steel tire companies maintain a high start-up status. Some all-steel tire companies in Shandong have short-term maintenance plans, which has a certain delay on the start-up of the overall sample. Many places in the north have entered the off-season of demand, and transactions in channels and terminal stores have dropped significantly. The logistics industry has scarce cargo transportation, freight rates have dropped significantly, but business is still sluggish, and demand for tire replacement has weakened significantly.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
December 1
|
December 4
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
12567
|
12533
|
-33
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1470
|
1465
|
-5
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
11880
|
11800
|
-80
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
9550
|
9550
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
10100
|
10100
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
1515
|
1500
|
-15
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
828
|
767
|
-62
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.158
|
7.151
|
-0.007
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2066
|
0.2089
|
0.0023
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
The overall supply of natural rubber in the main producing areas of Southeast Asia shows a seasonal increase. The peak season of cutting is conducive to the release of raw materials. However, the recent production areas still have the impact of rainfall, and the follow-up of glue output is limited. China's Yunnan production areas have stopped cutting, and new rubber production has dropped significantly., raw material costs are firm, and there may be support at the bottom of natural rubber. The short-term amount of imported rubber arriving in Hong Kong may continue to increase, and the total social inventory has limited changes. The demand side has gradually entered the off-season at the end of the year, and the demand for terminal replacement has weakened. The operating rate of China's downstream all-steel tire enterprises has dropped, and the pressure on goods sales has gradually increased. On the whole, positive factors in the early period were traded on the market, there were no new hype points in the short term, and there was insufficient upward driving on the market. At the same time, the commodity market was short, and it is expected that rubber will remain weak in the short term.
