93,570
December 28, 2023, 4:26 PM
Figure 1: Shandong market price of STR20 MIX
Figure 2: Zhejiang market price of ordinary bulk imported from Thailand
dry rubber
Natural rubber market prices rose significantly this week. Judging from the current supply port situation, China's production areas have recently entered a cut-off period. Coupled with the fact that the actual output of overseas production areas has fallen short of expectations, factories outside China are winter reserves and normal production rhythm, which has strong support for raw material prices. The overall demand for domestic sales on the demand-side is weak, which relatively suppresses its sentiment on raw material procurement, and suppresses the continued reduction of port inventories. On the whole, the natural rubber market is still dominated by bullish factors, with speculation on selling and purchasing, and rubber prices may continue to remain strong in the short term.
natural latex
This week, China's concentrated milk offers remain high. The overall release of new rubber in Southeast Asia is still limited. The raw glue market continues to explore. The US dollar ship offers from upstream Thai processing plants have stabilized at a high level. Supply and cost support are strong. In terms of sales areas, spot supply is small, and holders are mainly reluctant to sell and report high prices. However, downstream product companies still have certain bearish expectations for the future outlook, their willingness to receive high-priced raw materials is weak, and their purchases remain small and just needed. It is expected that in the short term, the natural latex spot market offers will be dominated by strong consolidation.
Market outlook forecast:
1、国外产区降雨天气或存缓和预期，季节性上量阶段，原料价格支撑预期走弱；
2、预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率或将下滑；
3、中国青岛库存量或存去库趋势，高库存压力有所缓和；
4. Exchange rate, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, etc.
