Analysis of natural rubber market price on January 8
index
On January 8, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1525/ton, down US$25/ton from the previous trading day, or 1.61%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date
|
Previous period: RU Futures
|
|
main contract
|
closing price
|
|
opening price
|
Low-end price
|
High-end price
|
closing price
|
RU01
|
RU05
|
RU09
|
|
January 8
|
13845
|
13440
|
13850
|
13470
|
13325
|
13470
|
13600
|
|
on January 5,2021
|
13875
|
13810
|
13925
|
13850
|
13710
|
13850
|
13970
|
|
rise and fall
|
-30
|
-370
|
-75
|
-380
|
-385
|
-380
|
-370
|
|
date
|
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)
|
|
NR main force
|
NR01
|
NR05
|
NR09
|
|
January 8
|
10830
|
10730
|
10925
|
11440
|
|
on January 5,2021
|
11140
|
11040
|
11235
|
11420
|
|
rise and fall
|
-310
|
-310
|
-310
|
20
|
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall and weather still exist in southern Thailand's production areas, and the volume of production areas has been affected. To a certain extent, raw material prices have a narrow upward trend and cost support is strong.
China: Hainan production area has entered into a ban on cutting ahead of schedule. At present, some processing plants have begun to shut down. China's Yunnan production area has stopped cutting, and the price of raw material glue is not yet available.
|
price type
|
on January 5,2021
|
January 8
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
55
|
55
|
0
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
46.55
|
46.05
|
-0.5
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
--
|
--
|
-
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
10400
|
10400
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
11400
|
11400
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
12400
|
12400
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
Demand: As the off-season approaches at the end of the year, terminal delivery is not smooth. Some all-steel tire terminal stores have scarce goods at sunrise, and social inventories are relatively sufficient. Due to monthly purchase constraints, agents replenish goods appropriately to stabilize the factory mood. However, at present, there is no strong willingness to hoard more, and the main focus is to continue to digest more inventory.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
on January 5,2021
|
January 8
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
12883
|
12633
|
-250
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1550
|
1525
|
-25
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
12200
|
11970
|
-230
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
10400
|
10300
|
-100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
11100
|
11000
|
-100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
1650
|
1500
|
-150
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
967
|
837
|
-130
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.1861
|
7.173
|
-0.0131
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2116
|
0.2095
|
-0.0021
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
Today, the rubber market has dropped significantly. Judging from the current supply and demand situation in the natural rubber market, China's production areas on the supply side have basically entered the cut-off period, but the output of delivery products is expected to increase. The main rubber production areas in overseas production areas are affected by the weather. The peak season will not be prosperous, raw material prices may remain firm, and short-term costs will still be supported; social inventories have increased slightly. Under the influence of seasonal fluctuations in imports, the expectation of a decline in social inventories in ports is limited; The downstream demand side has weakened significantly. As the off-season approaches at the end of the year, terminal delivery is not smooth, and orders from downstream tire companies have slowed down. On the whole, the current rubber fundamentals are both long and short. With the end of short-term hype topics, there is limited room for further upside, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term.
