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[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (January 9)

88,614
January 9, 2024, 4:23 PM

Analysis of natural rubber market price on January 9

index

On January 9, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1510/ton, down US$15/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.98%.

market analysis

futures market

date

Previous period: RU Futures

main contract

closing price

opening price

Low-end price

High-end price

closing price

RU01

RU05

RU09

January 9

13475

13380

13560

13445

13250

13445

13585

January 8

13845

13440

13850

13470

13325

13470

13600

rise and fall

-370

-60

-290

-25

-75

-25

-15

 

date

Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)

NR main force

NR01

NR05

NR09

January 9

10850

10715

10980

11320

January 8

10830

10730

10925

11440

rise and fall

20

-15

55

-120

 

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: The production situation in southern Thailand has been affected, which supports raw materials to remain firm to a certain extent and strong cost support.

China: Hainan production area has entered into a ban on cutting ahead of schedule. At present, some processing plants have begun to shut down. China's Yunnan production area has stopped cutting, and the price of raw material glue is not yet available.

price type

January 8

January 9

rise and fall

units

raw material prices

Thailand

glue

55

55.3

0.3

baht/kg

cup glue

46.05

45.85

-0.2

baht/kg

Yunnan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

0

0

0

Yuan/ton

rubber block

10400

10400

0

Yuan/ton

Hainan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

11400

11400

0

Yuan/ton

Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)

12400

12400

0

Yuan/ton

 

Demand side: The start of maintenance enterprises is gradually recovering, and the start of some all-steel tire enterprises has not yet recovered to the previous level. At the beginning of the month, the overall enthusiasm of agents to obtain goods improved compared with the previous month. Most of them were mainly to achieve monthly tasks, and they were not willing to hoard too much, mainly because they were bearish on post-holiday policies. Overall, market transactions are sparse, and the focus is mainly on payment back.

Futures spot price list

price type

January 8

January 9

rise and fall

units

price of finished products

Shandong

China All Latex

12633

12533

-100

Yuan/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 standard glue

1525

1510

-15

us dollars/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

11970

11970

0

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Hainan

10300

10300

0

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk

11000

10900

-100

Yuan/ton

the current price difference

Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

1500

1475

-25

Yuan/ton

Main force-China All Latex

837

912

75

Yuan/ton

relevant exchange rate

us dollar against the RMB

7.173

7.174

0.001

Yuan

Thai Baht to RMB

0.2095

0.2097

0.0002

Yuan

 

market outlook

Recently, the rubber market has continued to fall. Judging from the current supply and demand situation in the natural rubber market, China's production areas on the supply side have basically entered a cut-off period, but the output of delivery products is expected to increase. The main rubber production areas in overseas production areas are affected by the weather. The peak season is not strong, raw material prices may remain firm, and short-term costs still have support; social inventories have increased slightly. Under the influence of seasonal fluctuations in imports, the expectation of a decline in social inventories in ports is limited; The downstream demand side has weakened significantly. As the off-season approaches at the end of the year, terminal delivery is not smooth, and orders from downstream tire companies have slowed down. On the whole, the current rubber fundamentals are both long and short. With the end of short-term hype topics, there is limited room for further upside, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term.