88,597
January 11, 2024, 4:16 PM
Figure 1: Shandong market price of STR20 MIX
Figure 2: Zhejiang market price of ordinary bulk imported from Thailand
dry rubber
Natural rubber market prices fell within a narrow range this week. Judging from the current supply and demand situation in the natural rubber market, China's production areas on the supply side have basically entered the cut-off period, but the output of delivery products is expected to increase. The main rubber production areas in overseas production areas are affected by the weather and are not prosperous during the peak season, and raw material prices may remain strong. In the state, short-term costs still have support; social inventories have increased slightly. Under the influence of seasonal fluctuations in imports, the expectation of a decline in social inventories in ports is limited; The downstream demand side has weakened significantly. As the off-season approaches at the end of the year, terminal delivery is not smooth, and orders from downstream tire companies have slowed down. On the whole, the current rubber fundamentals are both long and short. With the end of short-term hype topics, there is limited room for further upside.
natural latex
This week, China's concentrated milk offers dropped slightly, and all Chinese producing areas have stopped cutting. The raw material market in major overseas Southeast Asian producing areas has once again shown an upward trend. The pressure on upstream processing plants is not large, the US dollar ship cargo offers are firm, and cost support remains unchanged. However, the spot of Vietnamese concentrated milk arriving in Hong Kong is relatively concentrated, and traders are under pressure to ship. Moreover, as the Spring Festival annual holiday approaches, downstream tourism demand is weakening and expectations are stronger, and there is a situation of "internal circulation" among traders, suppressing market transaction prices. It will cause a certain drag on the market.
Market outlook forecast:
1、国外产区降雨天气或存缓和预期，季节性上量阶段，原料价格支撑预期走弱；
2、预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率趋稳为主；
3、中国青岛库存量或存去库趋势，高库存压力有所缓和；
4. Exchange rate, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, etc.
