[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (January 15)

Analysis of natural rubber market price on January 15

index

On January 15, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1550/ton, up US$5/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.32%.

market analysis

futures market

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: The production situation in southern Thailand has been affected, which supports raw materials to remain firm to a certain extent and strong cost support.

China: Hainan production area has entered into a ban on cutting ahead of schedule. At present, some processing plants have begun to shut down. China's Yunnan production area has stopped cutting, and the price of raw material glue is not yet available.

Demand: Demand in the all-steel tire market is weak, merchants at all levels are mainly repaying money, trading is sporadic, and the shipping prices of first-level agents are stable, and there is room for negotiation on actual transactions. Some merchants expect to hold order meetings in the middle and late stages, and some channel customers have delayed their purchase plans. Transaction prices in the semi-steel tire market are stable, and the enthusiasm of agents to purchase goods has improved slightly. Some companies have increased their production schedules with Chinese specifications, and the number of models that were out of stock in the early stage has increased. Chinese agents have stockpiled and replenished goods. Overall, most companies have pre-scheduled foreign trade orders. Mainly, China still has shortages, but demand is flat and will not cause shortages in the market for the time being.

Futures spot price list

market outlook

Today, the main rubber contract opened with an upward fluctuation trend. Judging from the current supply and demand situation in the natural rubber market, China's production areas on the supply side have basically entered a cut-off period, and Vietnam's production areas will also enter a cut-off period. As the main supply area in Thailand, the output in the south has also fallen short of expectations. Coupled with the high purchasing sentiment of some processing plants, raw material prices have shown a significant upward trend, and the raw material side is basically in a bullish state; Downstream, there is a small peak in semi-steel tire shipments before the festival, and agents will continue to replenish stocks to meet market demand. Market trading activity will gradually improve compared with the previous period. The entire steel tire market is in a seasonal off-season, but some brand policies are gradually released. The enthusiasm for picking up goods through secondary channels may be slightly boosted. On the whole, the current rubber fundamentals are more supported and are expected to remain high in the short term.