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[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (January 15)

87,871
January 15, 2024, 4:42 PM

Analysis of natural rubber market price on January 15

index

On January 15, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1550/ton, up US$5/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.32%.

market analysis

futures market

date

Previous period: RU Futures

main contract

closing price

opening price

Low-end price

High-end price

closing price

RU01

RU05

RU09

on January 15

13800

13755

13935

13785

13650

13785

13910

on January 12

13700

13665

13800

13770

13635

13770

13900

rise and fall

100

90

135

15

15

15

10

 

date

Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)

NR main force

NR01

NR05

NR09

on January 15

11125

11030

11260

11290

on January 12

11070

11030

11215

11290

rise and fall

55

0

45

0

 

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: The production situation in southern Thailand has been affected, which supports raw materials to remain firm to a certain extent and strong cost support.

China: Hainan production area has entered into a ban on cutting ahead of schedule. At present, some processing plants have begun to shut down. China's Yunnan production area has stopped cutting, and the price of raw material glue is not yet available.

price type

on January 12

on January 15

rise and fall

units

raw material prices

Thailand

glue

57.2

59.3

2.1

baht/kg

cup glue

46.4

47.15

0.75

baht/kg

Yunnan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

--

-

--

Yuan/ton

rubber block

10400

10400

0

Yuan/ton

Hainan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

11400

11400

0

Yuan/ton

Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)

12400

12400

0

Yuan/ton

 

Demand: Demand in the all-steel tire market is weak, merchants at all levels are mainly repaying money, trading is sporadic, and the shipping prices of first-level agents are stable, and there is room for negotiation on actual transactions. Some merchants expect to hold order meetings in the middle and late stages, and some channel customers have delayed their purchase plans. Transaction prices in the semi-steel tire market are stable, and the enthusiasm of agents to purchase goods has improved slightly. Some companies have increased their production schedules with Chinese specifications, and the number of models that were out of stock in the early stage has increased. Chinese agents have stockpiled and replenished goods. Overall, most companies have pre-scheduled foreign trade orders. Mainly, China still has shortages, but demand is flat and will not cause shortages in the market for the time being.

Futures spot price list

price type

on January 12

on January 15

rise and fall

units

price of finished products

Shandong

China All Latex

12833

12933

100

Yuan/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 standard glue

1545

1550

5

us dollars/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

12100

12270

170

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Hainan

10400

10500

100

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk

11150

11500

350

Yuan/ton

the current price difference

Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

1670

1515

-155

Yuan/ton

Main force-China All Latex

937

852

-85

Yuan/ton

relevant exchange rate

us dollar against the RMB

7.1815

7.1871

0.0056

Yuan

Thai Baht to RMB

0.2084

0.2101

0.0017

Yuan

 

market outlook

Today, the main rubber contract opened with an upward fluctuation trend. Judging from the current supply and demand situation in the natural rubber market, China's production areas on the supply side have basically entered a cut-off period, and Vietnam's production areas will also enter a cut-off period. As the main supply area in Thailand, the output in the south has also fallen short of expectations. Coupled with the high purchasing sentiment of some processing plants, raw material prices have shown a significant upward trend, and the raw material side is basically in a bullish state; Downstream, there is a small peak in semi-steel tire shipments before the festival, and agents will continue to replenish stocks to meet market demand. Market trading activity will gradually improve compared with the previous period. The entire steel tire market is in a seasonal off-season, but some brand policies are gradually released. The enthusiasm for picking up goods through secondary channels may be slightly boosted. On the whole, the current rubber fundamentals are more supported and are expected to remain high in the short term.