[Natural Rubber]: Monthly Rubber Review (January 2024)

dry rubber

This month, China's natural rubber spot market rebounded after falling. Social inventories increased slightly in the first half of this month. Under the influence of seasonal fluctuations in imports, expectations for a decline in social inventories in ports are limited; downstream demand has weakened significantly. As the off-season approaches at the end of the year, terminal goods are not smooth, orders from downstream tire companies have slowed down. As the topic of short-term hype comes to an end, the downward trend has strengthened. After China's production areas stopped cutting in the second half of this month, overseas production areas in northeastern Thailand and Vietnam have successively entered the season of cutting and production reduction in the middle and late of this month. The output in the southern part of Thailand, which is the main supply, also fell short of expectations. There are tightening expectations on the supply side. Raw material prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the supply side is good to support the rise in rubber prices.

natural latex

The price trend of China's natural latex market rose significantly this month. China's production areas have officially entered a cutting suspension period. Processing plants are more cautious in shipping finished products in inventory, and domestic rubber prices remain firm. In Southeast Asia, the cut-off period for Vietnam's production areas is approaching, and the supply in Thailand's production areas is gradually tightening. Processing plants have plans to hoard raw materials. The purchase price of glue is expected to still have room to rise, and the cost side is strong; the supply of resources in the sales area is small. Traders mainly hold forward orders. When import costs are high, traders have no intention of shipping at low prices.

Market outlook forecast:

In January and February, major production areas in Southeast Asia also entered a production reduction period, and Chinese production areas officially entered a cutting suspension period;

During the Spring Festival holiday in February, downstream start-ups fell and were expected to rise;

In March and February, the trend of inventory removal in Qingdao was limited, and social inventory pressure may increase.

4. Pay attention to China's macro policies and news trends.