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November 6, 2024, 4:26 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on November 6
index
November 6June, Natural Rubber Qingdao Market STR20 Price Index2065 beautifulYuan/ton, compared withThe previous trading day rose by US$40/ton.
market analysis
futures market
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Periodic showers in Thailand have little impact on rubber tapping work. The northeast is in a period of vigorous production, and the south has increased month-on-month, and the overall rubber output is still insufficient.
China: The weather conditions in Yunnan's production areas are good, rubber tapping is carried out normally, and the dry content decreases as the temperature decreases.
The weather in Hainan's production areas has improved, and rubber tapping operations have gradually begun normally. However, precipitation disturbances are still experienced in some areas. The island's raw material output has slowly returned to seasonal increases. Some processing plants have been relatively active in replenishing raw materials, and glue purchases have maintained a price increase.
Demand side:It is understood that there are differences in equipment operation and storage in all-steel tire enterprises. Each enterprise flexibly controls production scheduling based on its own inventory and shipment situation. Most enterprises start at high levels, and some of them store maintenance and production control. Semi-steel tire enterprises start at high levels. However, due to the impact of mold replacement, some enterprises start less than the previous level. In terms of the market, channel inventory is sufficient, terminal demand is poor, and the actual shipment effect is average. Most of them are mainly to make up for shortages. In addition, it is difficult to raise prices at the agent level. Most of them continue the previous price policy, and some are based on the inventory situation. Give certain policy support to the market.
Futures spot price list
market outlook
Recently, the main rubber contract has stopped falling and rebounded and has begun to show an upward trend. However, judging from the current rubber fundamentals, there is no obvious support. In the short term, the impact at the macro levels of China, medium and foreign countries is more obvious. Stimulated by the recovery at the macro level, the entire bulk market has appeared. It has improved to varying degrees, and rubber has followed suit. At the supply and demand level, the weather conditions in the upstream production areas have gradually improved, and the support for raw material costs has gradually become weak. In terms of downstream demand, channel inventory is sufficient, terminal demand is poor, and actual shipment results are average. Most of them are mainly made up for shortages. In addition, it is difficult to raise prices at the agent level, and most of them continue the previous price policy. In the absence of significant changes in fundamentals, there is relatively limited room for rubber growth in the short term, so beware of falling expectations.
