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November 14, 2024, 4:02 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on November 14
index
November 14June, Natural Rubber Qingdao Market STR20 Price Index1940 BeautyYuan/ton, compared withThe previous trading day fell by US$40/ton.
market analysis
futures market
spot market
Supply:
Abroad: Rainfall in southern Thailand disrupted the output of raw materials, and the factory received insufficient glue. The price of glue rebounded. The demand for raw materials in dry glue factories is still in place, and the price of cup glue is operating strongly.
China: Yunnan may enter a cutting stop period at the end of the month. The glue raw materials will be reduced and the dry content will decrease as the temperature drops.
At present, the weather conditions in Hainan's production areas have improved compared with the previous period, but there is still a small amount of rainfall in some areas, and the recovery of raw material output is less than that of the seasonal high-yield period.
Demand side:It is understood that the gradual resumption of construction of all-steel tyre maintenance enterprises will have a certain boost on the overall output. However, some areas such as Zibo are affected by the weather, and local enterprises have slight restrictions on starting operations. Overall, all-steel tyre enterprises have started operations at a low level. After the price increase, shipment resistance will increase. In terms of the market, the market demand for all-steel tire replacement is weak, and terminal inventory is slowly digested. Agents have sufficient stocks before the price increase. Currently, they are mainly digesting inventory, and their willingness to continue replenishment is weakened. They are mainly buying as they are used, and goods delivery through channels is slow.
Futures spot price list
market outlook
Today, the main rubber contract remains weak. However, judging from the current rubber fundamentals, the recent weather impact in the upstream production areas is more obvious. Some production areas have been affected by typhoon weather, and the rainfall weather is still disturbed, which has pushed up their raw material prices to a certain extent. There has been a rising trend. However, after the rainy weather has ended, the supply of raw materials in Thailand's production areas is expected to heat up, raw material prices are expected to fall, and cost support is relatively weak. In terms of downstream demand, China's terminal demand is insufficient, downstream purchasing sentiment is not high, and the industry is mainly based on on-demand. The industry is not optimistic about the demand in the later period. So far, the support for profit has gradually decreased, and futures have exceeded 10,000. There is insufficient momentum. The weak trend of rubber in the short term is difficult to change.
