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November 27, 2024, 3:29 PM
dry rubber
Natural rubber prices showed a negative "V" trend in November, and then remained volatile. In early November, rainfall in southern Thailand's producing areas disrupted rubber cutting work, preventing factory rubber collection, and overseas raw material prices stopped falling. China's social inventories remain in a state of being de-stocked. Coupled with the upcoming China Conference, market expectations are improving, and rubber prices are rising with the intensification of the capital game. However, its upward trend lasts for a limited time. As the supply in various production areas at home and abroad gradually improves, the increase in raw material prices has been blocked, and the cost side is negative for rubber prices. Tianjiao China's total social inventory has been suspended, and the stock of light and dark rubber has shown a cumulative trend. The monthly difference between the spot side of Thailand and mixed goods has narrowed in recent and distant months. The early positive benefits of the natural rubber market have gradually been absorbed, and rubber prices have dropped significantly from high points. Entering late November, cutting in Yunnan production areas in China is about to be stopped, raw material prices are significantly supported, and overseas weather is gradually improving. However, after the second round of replenishment and delivery, the purchase price of raw materials in Thailand has increased. China's natural rubber stocks continue to show accumulation, and all-steel tires have entered the off-season of seasonal consumption. Demand is not as expected, which restricts the rebound of rubber prices to a certain extent. With the resurgence of rumors of China dumping reserves, rubber prices have begun to fluctuate.
natural latex
this monthChina's natural latex market has fallen back at a high level. Currently, the rainy season in southern Thailand has disturbed the harvest of rubber, and the purchase price of glue is still driving upward. The cutting suspension period in China's Yunnan production area is approaching. The precipitation disturbance in Hainan may continue, and cost support continues to increase. Some low-priced sources in China's main port have been digested, and the spot supply is not pressured. While the internal and external markets remain upside down, the holders have no intention of shipping at a low price, further benefiting the natural latex market; However, the main overseas production areas in Southeast Asia are in a period of booming production, and the supply increase is expected to remain unchanged. Coupled with the fact that the demand from downstream product companies has not improved significantly. They only maintain just-needed buying orders, which has insufficient support for rubber prices, resulting in some bearish emotions in the market. There may continue to suppress the market.
Market outlook forecast:
In January and December, cutting was stopped in China's production areas, and foreign production areas increased production, and costs were still supported;
2. It is expected that the tire operating rate will weaken in December;
March. The social inventory of Tianjiao in December is expected.
