"thick breasts are over this year", "making thick breasts without food" and "whole breasts are true love".
These words are the most comments on the product of thick milk this year. I suddenly feel that everyone's views on thick milk this year are surprisingly consistent, but indeed, the contradiction between supply and demand of thick milk this year has also been infinitely magnified. The situation of supply exceeding demand from the initial expectation to the later landing also depleted everyone's bullish mood, and thick milk maintained a state of declining and bottoming out in the first half of the year. And thick milk will continue to decline in the next six months, and there will still be a change for the better.
1. The price of thick milk continues to reach the bottom or store support.
In fact, from the price trend chart, it is not difficult to see that from the decline in early February to the present, the non-yellow price solution for Thai imports in Zhejiang market basically maintains a narrow fluctuation of 9000 yuan / ton, which can be said to be basically firm at this point. And 9000 yuan / ton this point is already the lowest point in nearly three years, even if the current downstream construction is in the coldest stage of the year, the price of thick milk is not in the trend of continuous decline, and it can be seen from the side that there is still some support at the bottom of thick milk, even if it falls again, the space is relatively limited.
two。 Domestic supply whole milk shunt is expected to strengthen
At present, the production areas of Yunnan and Hainan are in the stage of increasing the volume of raw materials, and the expectation of a decline in raw material prices is also increasing, but for the thick milk processing plants in the producing areas, the mood of purchasing raw materials does not heat up with the increase of raw materials and the lower cost. The reason behind this is that the whole sales port is in a weak state, and thick milk is a closed-loop production-sales product. Raw material acquisition enthusiasm decline, the side also reflects the current thick milk factory capacity release is not in place, the output of finished products will be affected in the short term.
Another is the problem of changing production. We know that powdery mildew and drought in Yunnan production areas this year affect the whole harvest rhythm. The issue of whole milk production reduction once became a hot event in April and May, superimposed by the current "national collection and storage" event. Under the background of the yield in the production area, the pace of whole milk production continues to accelerate, thus stimulating the competitiveness of whole milk factories in the diversion of raw materials. It also affects the supply of raw materials in thick milk factories. Therefore, the conversion of concentrated milk to whole milk tends to be a positive stimulus for the price of concentrated milk.
3.The upside-down trend of internal and external plates is difficult to change and the supply of imported glue is reduced.
Since the end of January, the inner and outer plates have been hanging upside down, and then dragging traders' replenishment sentiment has dropped obviously. although the data on China's imports in May have not yet been released, judging from the thick milk exported from Thailand to China in April, it decreased by 56.47% month-on-month and 46.24% from the same period last year, but the month-on-month decrease was more than 50%, which is also an expected figure for comparative output. From the side, it reflects the obvious decline in the replenishment sentiment of traders, the arrival volume of imported rubber from the port will also be less, and the shipping pressure of traders has eased from the point of view of the supply port, which largely avoids the risk of everyone being stranded in Hong Kong to sell goods.
4.The demand has bottomed out and the balance of weakness may break expectations.
At present, the opening of downstream factories such as gloves and foaming is basically at the lowest level in nearly three years, and the worst possibility is to stop working. up to now, the supply and demand of thick milk is basically in a state of weak balance. and the fluctuation of the market lies in whether this balance can be broken.
From the downstream point of view, consumption incentives such as holidays and shopping festivals in the second half of the year are more than in the first half of the year. From the demand side, the probability of continued weakness is also relatively low, but there will be expectations of good performance. From the upstream point of view, the "collection and storage event" can all fall to the ground and the specific storage plan of the landing time, are in an unknown state, but it is also a good stimulus for whole milk, so as to ensure the demand for raw materials of whole milk. Internal and external market upside down trend does not change, traders replenishment mood is difficult to improve, both domestic and imported supply are in a relatively weak state. In fact, the weak balance of thick milk supply and demand wants to break the stepping stone is not high, although the demand side to suppress strong milk is very difficult to rise, but thick milk falling space is also continuing to narrow, medium-and long-term thick milk may usher in a new market.
