[Hot Focus]: Good support for turning light rubber prices to high levels, firm and weak

Review of the spot market: the positive factors turn weak & the spot price of nbsp; goes up and down

10 The spot market price of natural rubber in China fell after rising in March. The fundamentals of the "Shuangjie" acquired rubber market are still positive, the abnormal weather and phenology in the main producing areas outside China interferes with the output of raw materials, the price of raw materials rises strongly, the shipping date of imported rubber is delayed, and the inventory of Qingdao Port continues to drop. And the overall performance of automobile production and sales data is better than expected, the downstream construction is high, and the fundamentals are good to boost Tianjiao prices higher. In the middle and second half of the month, Tianjiao social inventory decelerated, the speed of finished product inventory in downstream enterprises slowed, the mood of risk aversion to the high price of raw materials increased, Tianjiao continued to be blocked, and the stock of raw materials was expected as the rainy weather in the producing areas alleviated. Positive factors were digested, and glue prices fell after rising.

Supply: weather disturbances in major producing areas outside China to ease raw material support and weak expectations

In Thailand, the rainfall in Thailand at the beginning of the month still disturbed the glue collection work, the shortage of raw materials continued, and the purchase price of raw materials rose strongly. In the last ten days, the rainfall in northeastern Thailand decreased, the output was expected to increase gradually, there was still rainfall disturbance in the south, and the raw material prices were high, but some raw material prices began to fall in a narrow range, and the cost support was expected to be weak.

In Yunnan, the raining weather has eased, the tapping operation has been carried out normally, and the supply of raw materials has been maintained in a reasonable state, but the spot profits of some finished products are considerable, and driven by good downstream orders, the operating rate of the processing plant has maintained a high level. Its Chinese factories actively produce whole latex, and private factories produce 9710 and T20 orders at full capacity. During this period, some processing plants said that bulk raw materials were more expensive than processing plants. In a relatively tight state, relatively strong support raw materials.

In Hainan, the rainy weather is mild and the spot price of thick milk is weak, the profits of processing plants and shipments are affected, the price of raw materials began to fall gradually in the second half of this year, and private factories in the case of poor sales and high actual purchase prices, raw material purchasing sentiment is expected to be weak.

Consumption: month-on-month decline in tire production and capacity utilization

Semi-steel tire: during the "double section" period at the beginning of the month, individual semi-steel tire enterprises kept short-term maintenance plans, which dragged down the overall start-up, slowed down internal and external sales within the month than last month, and increased domestic sales scheduling efforts, so as to alleviate the shortage of tires in the four seasons. Snow tire production gradually entered the end. On the whole, the production scheduling of domestic and foreign sales has been improved, the overall shipment has returned to the conventional delivery state, and the shortage of domestic sales has been gradually alleviated, but due to the large order gap in the previous period, there is still a shortage of conventional models in some enterprises.

All-steel tire: during the "double section" period at the beginning of the month, some all-steel tire enterprises keep 3-4-day maintenance plans, dragging the start-up rate of all-steel tire lower. During the month, the domestic shipments of most enterprises decreased significantly compared with the previous month, with conservative estimates of 20-30%, while foreign trade shipments slowed down slightly. On the whole, the monthly production and sales of all steel tire enterprises are in a state of decline, most enterprises are not out of stock, the overall inventory shows a growing trend.

Future forecast

As the weather disturbance in the main producing areas of Southeast Asia decreases and the supply increases gradually, the output of new rubber may increase obviously, but the irregular precipitation in some producing areas also has an impact, but the overall global production of natural rubber shows an increasing trend, and the price of raw materials may be expected to decline. Cost support weakens, raw material costs decline upstream factory shipments, marginal supply pressure increases, demand-side downstream tire orders for snow tyres basically end overseas orders are completed Tire enterprises start work or it is difficult to maintain a high level, the demand for rubber price support is not obvious. With the gradual increase in port arrivals 11 Month China Tianjiao inventory or inventory is expected to be dragged by short fundamentals and expected to rise due to weaker rubber price shocks in November.