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January 10, 2024, 4:51 PM
Review of natural rubber market trend in 2023
In 2023, the Thai mixed market in China's Shandong market showed a low shock tail closing trend. Since January, the spot price has been in a concussive downward trend, maintaining a narrow concussion trend from mid-late March to the end of August, and the overall price is relatively stable. There is no obvious fluctuation, but after entering the traditional "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", the glue price shows an obvious upward trend. Overall, the rubber price in 2023 spent most of the time in the low state of nearly three years, and basically maintained in the low and weak operation state in the first three quarters, and began to rise significantly at the end of the third quarter, and the rubber market price finally ended in a relatively high level in the fourth quarter. The average price for the whole year was about 11125 yuan / ton, down 7.64% from the same period last year. The lowest point of the year was 10470 yuan / ton at the beginning of August and the highest point was 12350 yuan / ton at the end of December.
The first quarter is in the low-yield period of the global natural rubber producing areas, and some of the producing areas are in the stop-cutting period. in theory, there is cost support for raw material prices, and the lower reaches of China are in the stage of resuming construction at the end of the Spring Festival holidays. costs and purchasing sentiment boost rubber prices, but when the arbitrage window opens in the first quarter, importers are more enthusiastic about replenishment, and as the supply continues to arrive at the port, port inventory begins to accumulate. Put pressure on the rise in glue prices.
After entering the second quarter, China's natural rubber inventory continued to climb to a high level, suppressing rubber prices, Chinese buying prices were low, reverse transmission to suppress overseas raw material prices was difficult to have upward power, and the second plate merchants still had more hoarding of cup rubber, and the cost side also dragged down the rubber price. from the demand side, the tire market concentrated on the delivery of early foreign trade orders in the first quarter, and capacity utilization remained high. After entering the second quarter, foreign trade orders tend to be stable. With the lack of momentum recovery of China's economy, rubber prices entered a long-term and stable fluctuation stage in the second quarter, and the overall fluctuation range was very limited.
The natural rubber market broke the horizontal deadlock in the third quarter, and spot prices began to fluctuate upwards. during this period, the impact of rainfall weather in China's external production areas was more obvious, the output of raw materials was limited, and the rising trend at the cost side was obvious. in turn, it supports the strong upward offer of Chinese outer rubber, and the upstream production profit changes from negative to profitable. with the decrease of overseas shipping arrival in the middle of the third quarter, Qingdao inventory began to show a turning point to go to the warehouse. Downstream factory profit data performance is good, pull start at a high level, boost market confidence, stack the same products inside and outside the industry, Tianjiao break the deadlock, shock upward.
In the fourth quarter, the quotation of the Shandong market began to show an obvious upward trend after entering December, and finally the quotation of rubber in the fourth quarter of 2023 ended with a high offer. In mid-November, the stock news came out again, and the overall operation of the commodity economy continued to recover for the better, stimulating bullish sentiment in the market and pushing up glue prices. In December, rubber ushered in a wave of rising hot wind again at the end of the fourth quarter. At the beginning of the month, northeast Thailand was in a peak production period, and the purchase price of raw materials was loose, and the slowdown of inventory removal in Qingdao, China, suppressed the rubber price to a certain extent, but the increment of raw materials was still less than expected. superimposed Tainan thick milk winter reserve demand increased, the overall supply tension pulled up the purchase price of raw materials, production reduction is expected to rise, rubber prices rebounded upward after a short consolidation at the beginning of the month. Superimposed by rumors of buying and selling stocks within 12 months and heavy rainfall in southern Thailand at the end of December, rubber prices continued to rise, finally ending the rubber trend of 2023 in the fourth quarter.
