86,551
January 31, 2024, 4:07 PM
1.The cut-off period in China's production areas is coming, the peak season in foreign production areas is not prosperous, and the cost is supported to maintain a high level.
Foreign producing areas: raw materials in Thailand continue to rise this month, basically at the highest level in the same period of nearly three years. Overseas northeastern Thailand and Vietnam have entered the cut-off season in the middle and last ten days of this month, and the output in the southern part of Thailand, as the main supply, is also lower than expected. powdery mildew and fallen leaf disturbance output, glue prices continue to hit record highs, glue series finished latex products and tobacco film glue rise greatly, as the southern production is nearing the end. It is expected to enter the production reduction season half a month ahead of schedule, and factories and second-tier companies are actively hoarding raw materials for inventory.
Vietnam's production areas have entered the shutdown period one after another. up to now, about 70-80% of Vietnam's production areas have basically stopped cutting, and there has been a marked decline in raw material output. some processing plants said that the mood of preparing goods before the stop was OK, and the mood of selling at high prices was still in a relatively weak state. It is expected that the main natural rubber producing areas in Vietnam will enter the state of stopping.
Production areas in China: Yunnan production areas have entered the stage of full suspension of production, and the price of raw materials is not available for the time being; private factories say they expect to stop work completely by the end of the month. At present, 9710 of orders in private factories are still being scheduled, and the main raw materials are mainly standard II, rubber blocks, and Burma San. the raw materials are basically from the rubber dumps in the hands of local farmers, and there are some substitute indicators for Burma San raw materials.
Hainan officially entered the cut-off period this month, some farms in the middle of the month entered the stop-cutting state, only sporadic tapping in the south, the end of the month has entered the stop-cutting state, raw material prices are also suspended at the end of the month, the private processing plant concentrated milk production line is in the suspension stage, the inventory level of finished products in the factory is on the low side, and the willingness to ship goods is not high.
2.The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, downstream enterprises have entered the state of holiday one after another, and the pace of procurement has slowed down
Semi-steel tire: the factory started in January basically maintained a high state, most enterprises focus on internal and external sales to support the high operation of production scheduling, but individual due to many specifications and models, individual enterprise mold replacement frequently, output is affected to a certain extent, the operating rate is affected. However, foreign trade shipments are smooth, domestic sales make up pre-orders, and the overall supply is still relatively tight.
All-steel tire: the factory started in January to maintain a high level, and most of the maintenance enterprises before and after "New Year's Day" gradually resumed work and production around the beginning of the month, and the start-up rate gradually increased at the beginning of the month. In order to meet the order demand, the start-up rate of individual enterprises was raised to a high level, pulling the sample start-up rate up, and some enterprises in Dongying and Weifang area planned to stop work at the end of the month. Individual enterprises have gradually entered the pre-festival closing stage, and there is a certain drag on the start. Recently, export sales still form a certain support for enterprise shipments, domestic shipments are slow as a whole, and inventories continue to increase.
3. Cost support before Spring Festival is strong or expected to improve
After the stop of production in China in the last ten days, the production areas of northeastern Thailand and Vietnam have successively entered the season of stopping harvest and reducing production in the middle and last ten days of this month. The output in the southern part of Thailand, as the main supply, is also less than expected, and the supply side is expected to tighten. The price of raw materials is easy to rise, difficult to fall, and the supply side is good to support higher rubber prices. The downstream demand side is weak obviously, with the advent of the off-season at the end of the year, the terminal goods are not smooth, and the orders of downstream tire enterprises slow down, with the end of the short-term hype topic, or drag on the market, but the cost support is currently relatively strong, supporting the rubber price to maintain a relatively high level to a certain extent.
