From the above picture, it is not difficult to see that the trend of thick milk pour "V" is obvious in May and June. From the time point of view, the natural rubber latex quotation began to rise in early May, and its rising trend has been maintained for nearly a month, and the spot quotation also rose to the highest level of 14250 yuan / ton in the first half of the year in mid-June.
After entering May, the spot resources of natural rubber latex in domestic sales areas began to be a little tight, some ports were obviously out of stock, and even traders did not report in the spot market for a time. After entering June, the natural rubber latex market continued to rise in May, boosted by the macro outlook. However, after entering June, the output situation in the production areas began to change. With the increase in the amount of new rubber in the production areas, the raw material prices at the cost side were loosened, and the actual sales downstream were not as expected, thus more resistant to the purchase of high prices and strong milk. Market bearish mood fermented, and then drag rubber prices began to show a downward trend. In the short term, the rising market of thick milk has basically come to an end, and it is open to question whether thick milk is "rebounding after falling" or "falling endlessly", but from the point of view of supply and demand, the rising trend of thick milk is relatively weak.
1. The main producing areas are approaching the peak production period, and the cost support begins to weaken.
From the point of view of the global natural rubber seasonal output, May to July belongs to the production increasing period, and the main producing areas at home and abroad are basically in the state of tapping. With the increase of the cutting area, the overall amount of raw materials is expected to become more obvious. The cost end support is expected to weaken and begin to strengthen. Thai glue and domestic Hainan glue prices have fallen to varying degrees in the near future. And then in the absence of weather conditions of individual disturbances, the amount of raw materials is expected to be the main tone of the next production areas, and the support of the cost side also began to weaken.
2. The start-up of downstream products enterprises is weak, and the demand for purchasing rigidity is declining.
To a certain extent, the higher spot quotation of thick milk will also stimulate downstream enterprises to raise the pricing of finished products, thus ensuring the closed-loop process of price increase, but in terms of downstream feedback, under the trend of continuous rise in the spot market of thick milk, the high price transmission of finished products in downstream products is not as expected, which in turn hinders the closed-loop price increase. Downstream enterprises in the cost increase is blocked, for the high milk replenishment procurement sentiment is also more and more resistant, sporadic transactions are basically only downstream to maintain rigid demand. Some downstream enterprises said that according to the market in previous years, the price of thick milk may decline during the period of output increase, and then begin to replenish the stock one after another after the price falls, but this year the market has gone up all the way, disrupting the downstream procurement and replenishment plan to a certain extent, and maintaining rigid demand for replenishment at a low price.
3. The trend of increasing production in the producing area has been determined and the fatigue state of concentrated milk is obvious.
Domestic and foreign production areas in the exclusion of the interference of individual weather conditions, the next trend of increasing production is basically out of the open card state, and the recent raw material prices have also begun to decline to varying degrees, it is not difficult to see that the support of the cost side has begun to weaken. On the demand side, there is no obvious improvement in the finished product orders of downstream enterprises, and the willingness to purchase demand is on the low side. Superimposed under the pressure of high cost, some factories begin to scale back their operations, thus slowing down the speed of raw material digestion and easing the current cost pressure. From the point of view of supply and demand, it is difficult to change the fatigue of thick milk quotation in the short term, and the port spot price is lower and warmer again.
