[Hot Focus]: The weather disturbance is obvious and the rubber cost support is strong

China's production areas: Typhoon weather passes through China's production areas are expected to reduce reserves

According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, Typhoon "Capricorn" will be the strongest typhoon to land in China this year, and its landing intensity is directly comparable to Typhoon "Rammasun" in 2014. The arrival of the super typhoon "Capricorn" has affected China's Hainan and Yunnan production areas to varying degrees, especially the precipitation weather in Hainan production areas has increased significantly. Affected by the typhoon, rubber tapping and production work in some areas of Hainan producing areas are still in the process of resuming. It is understood that the western and southern areas of Hainan Island are still good. It is heard that factories in Ledong, Wuzhishan and other areas have basically resumed production one after another, and the processing plants have made concentrated emulsion glue. The purchase price reference is 15,600 - 15,800 yuan/ton. Yunnan production area,Typhoon "Capricorn" reached Yunnan production areas, which had a great impact on Mengla County. Heavy rains continued. Some processing plants have entered a state of shutdown, production, wind and flood resistance. The price of rubber collected is low, but it basically remains high. Overall, the landing of this typhoon has affected the glue output in China's production areas to a certain extent, and cost-side support is in a relatively strong state.

Foreign production areas: Frequent rainfall and weather disturbances, limited rubber tapping operations

It can be seen from the above figure that there is frequent rainfall in rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia. As far as Thailand's situation is concerned, floods in Thailand have had a certain impact on the rubber area since last week, but the weather conditions are relatively within the normal seasonal range, and the overall output is still Compared with previous years, expectations for production reductions are relatively supportive of maintaining high raw material prices. Rainfall weather in Vietnam's production areas is relatively obvious, which has an impact on rubber tapping work. In addition, local demand in Cambodia has increased, and the amount of raw materials exported to Vietnam has decreased year-on-year. Therefore, the purchase price of raw materials in Vietnam has remained strong. In addition, the international market demand is improving, and the buying price is high. In order to make up orders, the overall purchase of raw materials by the processing factory is still relatively active.

Overall: Cost support is stronger, rubber continues to be high

Recently, weather disturbances in other production areas in China have been obvious. Due to the impact of typhoons, glue output in China's production areas has been significantly reduced. However, the impact of the typhoon exists for a short period of time. After the end, production in the production areas can basically return to normal, so there is a decline in cost support. In terms of demand, June to August in previous years were the peak consumption season for terminal demand, and around September it was easy to drive price increases in the spot market. However, this year, demand for all steel tires has been flat from June to August. Against the background of the continued rise in natural rubber, the price policies of various factories have remained basically stable, and there is still some pressure on shipments in various links in the near future. Fundamentally, the current bullish sentiment persists, downstream demand is in a relatively peak season, and rubber spot stocks are declining. In the short term, fundamentals will improve their support for prices, and relatively support rubber to maintain a high and volatile trend.