946
September 30, 2024, 2:39 PM
On the last trading day before the National Day holiday, the rubber opening once again affected the trend higher. Since last week, China's macro policies have been stimulating continuously, the Shanghai Composite Index has also risen, and the entire commodities are also recovering as a whole. Under the favorable macro policies and the positive results of bulk commodities, the rising market for rubber has been significantly boosted, and rubber futures have also begun to show a significant higher trend.
Supply side:
Production areas in Thailand: Heavy rainfall is still experienced in some areas of Thailand, affecting rubber tapping and factory production and transportation, and the purchase price of raw materials remains high. In the short-term, Thailand's phenology shows a trend of decreasing precipitation in other regions except southern Thailand, and rubber tapping work may improve. Expectations for volume increase are strong, and raw material prices are expected to weaken after the holiday.
Production areas of Vietnam: The weather in the production area is relatively abnormal compared with previous years, precipitation disturbances continue, rubber tapping work is still not smooth, and the overall supply of raw materials falls short of expectations. Some factories actively purchase raw materials in order to make up orders, thus continuing to push up the purchase price of raw materials.
Hainan production area: The weather in Hainan production area has improved to some extent, and raw material production has shown a recovery increase, some processing factories are optimistic about the post-holiday market to a certain extent. In recent days,In order to ensure their own production, some processing plants actively snap up raw materials, which in turn drives the purchase price of raw materials to continue to rise, I heard that the actual rubber price has recently remained at 19,900 - 20,200 yuan/ton。
Yunnan production area: Various districts in Yunnan have gradually carried out glue collection work, and glue has entered the stage of increasing quantity. Affected by market prices, the price of raw glue has continued to rise, reaching a two-year high. Before the glue was changed, the supply of glue has gradually increased. The supply side may usher in a comprehensive increase. At present, the processing plant is basically at full capacity. As the price of finished products rises, the processing plant is more motivated to start work, and the processing profit is still acceptable.
Demand side:
This year, China's semi-steel tire industry has maintained a trend of "booming production and sales"，Current production and sales of semi-steel tiresThe situation is relatively maintainedStable, heard that some companiesor as the result ofRaw material problems, the pace of later delivery and order volume have been affected to a certain extent.certain extentAffecting some companiesstartedRate, currently there is an expectation for a slight decline in the output of semi-steel tire companies in the fourth quarter. In terms of all-steel tires, although there have been macro positive releases in the near future, it is expected that the demand for all-steel tires will be boosted before the end of the year. In the fourth quarter, demand in the north has gradually entered the off-season. Coupled with high raw material costs, companies will maintain the idea of flexible production scheduling. The pressure on production and sales in the all-steel tire industry has increased significantly. The number of maintenance companies and maintenance days during the "National Day" holiday have increased significantly year-on-year.。
Market outlook forecast:
Judging from the current production and sales situation,In addition to the fundamentals, in the short termMacro, purchasing, etc.News hypeetc. are also important drivers of this rubber rise。In the medium to long term,Natural rubber all year roundExpectations of supply-side production cuts still exist,Supply and demand pattern in which supply is less than demandMay be difficult to change, after the festivalReserve high callback expectations。
