[Hot Focus]: Rubber has ended its surge and the decline is obvious

Recently, the overall fluctuation range of natural rubber is obvious. In the case of macro positive and commodity positive before the National Day, rubber futures have maintained a rising trend, obviously boosting the rising price of rubber spot. After the end of the National Day holiday, rubber futures began to open high and go low, and natural rubber closed at the limit on October 10, with the main RU2501 contract closing at 18045 points, down 1155 points from the previous trading day; NR 2412 contract closed at 13840 points, down 885 points from the previous trading day.

At the macro level, before the holiday season, China's macro news was constantly stimulated, the Shanghai Composite Index also rose, and the whole commodity also rebounded as a whole, which led to a significant improvement in the rubber disk and, to a certain extent, the spot began to move higher. During the holiday period, overseas markets were affected by the news of the postponement of the EUDR Act, factory trading sentiment weakened, outer disk quotations began to decline, after the end of the holiday, the macro atmosphere of commodities weakened, capital sentiment cooled, futures generally fell, rubber futures could not escape the impact, and even closed down on October 10th.

Judging from the fundamental situation of rubber itself, when the supply side enters October, the rainfall in the main rubber producing areas outside China has eased, among which the rainfall in northeastern Thailand has obviously reduced, the tapping work has been carried out gradually, the cutting level has reached nearly 70%, and the price of raw materials in the northeast has fallen; there is still rainfall disturbance in the south, tapping work is not smooth, and raw material prices remain high. The weather condition in Hainan production area of China is good, the raw material shows seasonal increment, the transaction of the high price in the spot market is not good, the factory production profit is lost, and the raw material price falls obviously; the weather in Yunnan production area is good, the tapping work in each production area is carried out normally, the glue quantity is obvious, and affected by the fluctuation of futures market after the festival, the raw material glue price falls obviously after rising. Overall, the cost-end support is slightly weak after the end of the holiday, while according to the seasonal output of natural rubber, natural rubber will gradually enter a seasonal production reduction period in the next four quarters, and the growth rate of the overall output of raw materials is relatively limited. Cost end or storage support.

On the demand side, after the end of the holiday, the equipment scheduling of the maintenance enterprises during the National Day holiday returned to the conventional level, and the overall operating rate improved. In the market, the market price of all-steel tires mostly maintained a stable state, as agents and channel vendors prepared goods in advance, the inventory is relatively sufficient, in order to maintain the stability of the channel, the actual quotation continued before the price, the terminal demand has not been significantly improved. In terms of semi-steel tires, the four seasons tire market continues to carry out conventional goods, and the price increase news has not played a significant role in promoting market transactions for the time being. At present, the circulation of goods in China's snow tire market is higher than before, and various brands are actively selling goods. The actual demand of the terminal remains to be seen.

In summary, in the macro market hot mood gradually snub, the rubber disk also began to show a pullback trend. Generally speaking, there is a rubber production reduction period in the next four quarters, and there is more rain in the producing areas this year, and the global total rubber production reduction is expected to be strong, and then there is still some support at the cost end; after the end of the downstream "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the actual sales will also be affected. Up to now, the rubber market is still at a relatively high level during the year, and there is still plenty of room for short-term adjustment. Next, we should continue to pay attention to the variables of supply and demand, as well as macro market news.