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December 4, 2024, 1:59 PM
Since mid-to-late November, the market price of STR20 in the Qingdao market has shown a significant upward trend. According to the latest data, as of December 3, the spot offer of STR20 in Qingdao has risen to US$2100/ton, compared with US$1940/ton in mid-November., it increased by 8.25%.
Supply: Foreign natural rubber producing areas are currently in the peak production season, but due to the impact of rainfall and even floods, the market has certain expectations for reduction. On Monday, the Rubber Bureau of Thailand said that floods in southern Thailand have caused disasters to rubber plantations in eight provinces, involving more than 5 million rai of land, and the total loss is estimated to exceed 20 billion baht. Foreign raw material prices are still supporting so far. Judging from the seasonal output trend of China's natural rubber, November is in the transition period from the high-yield period to the cut-off period. Yunnan and Hainan production areas have successively entered the cut-off period, and the total glue output has decreased.11 monthslateRainy weather has occurred in Hainan's production areas, and with the cooling of temperatures in Hainan, the dry content of fresh glue in the central and eastern regions has dropped to around 27-28. The circulation of raw materials in the market is relatively limited, and local processing plants still need to purchase at a higher price.，This in turn drives the purchase price of raw materials to remain relatively strong. As the temperature gradually decreases in Yunnan production areas, China's Yunnan production areas will enter a cutting suspension period. Recently, the output of raw material glue has dropped significantly. It was heard that some factories have dropped due to the reduction of glue raw materials. Various processing plants are actively rushing to buy raw materials, supporting a slight increase in raw material prices.
News: The news of the postponement of the EU EUDR bill in the early stage has put a certain pressure on natural rubber, causing natural rubber to retreat from its pre-holiday increase after the National Day and enter a range consolidation stage. However, as of yesterday, there was market news that the postponement of the EUDR bill was blocked, the European Parliament and Council failed to reach a compromise, and a new round of negotiations would be held. If the negotiations fail, the original delay plan will expire. If this news is true and the EUDR bill cannot be postponed in the end, it will have a positive impact on both the cost and demand sides of natural rubber.
Inventory: As of December 1, 2024, the Qingdao Bonded Warehouse has been de-stocked, general trade has been slightly accumulated, and total inventory has been slightly de-stocked. The arrival of overseas standard rubber in Hong Kong has remained low, and bonded inventories have maintained the pace of removal. As mixed rubber has successively arrived in Hong Kong, the general trade warehousing volume has remained high. Coupled with the natural rubber price and spot price have continued to rise, the wait-and-see attitude of downstream companies has not decreased., still in accordance with the production schedule, mainly purchasing just needs to be carried out, which in turn drives general trade inventories to maintain a narrow accumulation trend.
Overall, the trading atmosphere in the natural rubber spot market is relatively good. The center of gravity of futures has been widely adjusted, boosting market trading sentiment. Spot offers on the market have continued to increase following the market, arbitrage and covering positions have increased, and the center of gravity of real orders has increased. There is some support for the supply and macro aspects of this market rise, but spot inventories maintain a cumulative trend and there is still suppression of the continued upward trend of prices.
