1. Interest rates/inflation
1. Recent inflation data shows that inflation is making some progress towards the 2% target, but it is still above the 2% target. High inflation is not the only economic risk.
2. The first quarter data "does not support" greater confidence in the inflation path. Early and excessive easing of policies may damage inflation progress.
3. Until the Federal Reserve's confidence that inflation will continue to move towards 2%, the policy of cutting interest rates is not appropriate.
4. The next policy move is unlikely to be raising interest rates.
5. No signal was sent today on the timing of the Fed's future policy actions.
6. If the labor market unexpectedly weakens, this may also be a reason to cut interest rates.
7. You need to see more good inflation data before you can cut interest rates.
2. Job market
1. Recent labor market data does send a clear signal of cooling.
2. The labor market has returned to its pre-epidemic level: strong, but not overheated.
3. The labor market seems to have returned to full balance.
4. Hope to continue to see a strong labor market.
5. Data shows that the breadth of job creation is declining.
6. Wage growth is still high, but it is declining.
3. U.S. economy/real estate market
1. U.S. GDP growth seems to have slowed down in the first half of 2024.
2. The U.S. economy is no longer overheating.
3. The United States has major housing problems.
4. Tighter policies are having an impact on real estate activities.
5. Commercial real estate risks may remain with the United States for many years.
4. Other aspects
1. U.S. regulators are close to agreeing to adjust plans to require large banks to significantly increase capital.
2. The independence of the Federal Reserve is necessary.
