Gasoline: International oil price support continues, and China's gasoline prices rise

Gasoline: international oil price support continues, China gasoline price rises

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230915	America	WTI	90.77	0.61
20230915	The United Kingdom	Brent	93.93	0.23

 

Gasoline price index

On September 18, China's gasoline price index rose 25.89, or 0.27%, to 9460.89, while China's gasoline price index rose 24.24, or 0.25%, to 9783.91. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index both rose, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 323.02.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale prices of gasoline in China have been raised by a narrow range, with gasoline prices in South China, Central China, Southwest China, North China, East China and Northeast China rising by 30-100 yuan per ton. The rest of the price zone has been sorted out. The ex-factory price of geo-refinery has been raised as a whole in all regions, with a range of 30-50 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction in China's gasoline market is OK, approaching the double festival, the atmosphere of hoarding is heating up before the festival, the downstream trade is properly replenished, and the willingness of refineries to raise prices is increasing, but the operators are cautious about the relatively high prices to curb the increase.

September 18 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 9.15	Price 9.18	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	9050-9800	9130-9800	80/0
	95#	9220-10160	9220-10160	0/0
South China	92#	9300-9800	9300-9850	0/50
	95#	9550-10100	9550-10150	0/50
Central China	92#	9250-9500	9300-9600	50/100
	95#	9400-9750	9470-9850	70/100
East China region	92#	9200-9600	9200-9600	0/0
	95#	9320-9900	9340-9900	20/0
Northwestern region	92#	9250-10134	9250-10134	0/0
	95#	9450-10910	9450-10910	0/0
Southwest China	92#	9500-9750	9500-9780	0/30
	95#	9700-10200	9730-10230	30/30
Northeast China	92#	9180-9880	9180-9880	0/0
	95#	9500-10400	9550-10400	50/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refining on September 18 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 9.15	Price 9.18	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8850-9170	8850-9200	0/30
	95#	9000-9300	9000-9350	0/50
North China region	92#	8940-9130	8970-9150	30/20
	95#	9040-9180	9070-9200	30/20
Central China	92#	9230-9230	9280-9280	50/50
	95#	9430-9430	9480-9480	50/50
East China region	92#	8920-9030	8940-9060	20/30
	95#	9040-9200	9060-9230	20/30
Northwestern region	92#	9200-9250	9200-9300	0/50
	95#	9350-9450	9350-9500	0/50
Northeast China	92#	9150-9150	9200-9200	50/50
	95#	9350-9350	9400-9400	50/50

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the tightening of supply is good to continue, and the fundamentals are well supported; in addition, the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in September is lower, and the economic concerns abate, which makes the international oil price more positive. Approaching the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, the market price mentality still exists under the cost boost. In addition, the new round of oil products is expected to be raised by a large margin, and the news side is favorable for support. But the current price high terminal risk aversion wait-and-see mood heats up. Taken together, China's gasoline market is expected to rise narrowly in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since the price adjustment of oil products in China on August 23, 2023, oil prices in the international market have fluctuated. According to the current price mechanism of oil products in China, the average price in the first 10 working days on September 6 is less than 50 yuan per ton compared with the average price in the first 10 working days on August 23. The price of gasoline and diesel will not be adjusted this time, and the unadjusted amount will be added or offset in the next price adjustment. The following table shows the results of the price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission on August 23, 2023, and the next price adjustment is expected to be September 20.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9765	8725
Tianjin	9730	8690
Hebei Province	9730	8690
Shanxi province	9800	8745
Liaoning province	9730	8690
Jilin Province	9730	8690
Heilongjiang province	9730	8690
Shanghai	9745	8695
Jiangsu Province	9785	8730
Zhejiang Province	9785	8745
Anhui province	9780	8740
Fujian Province	9805	8755
Jiangxi province	9785	8750
Shandong province	9740	8700
Hubei province	9755	8715
Hunan Province	9795	8775
Henan province	9750	8710
Hainan province	9875	8825
Chongqing	9945	8900
Guangdong province	9810	8760
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9875	8825
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9735	8690
Gansu province	9715	8710
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9510	8585
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9745	8705
Chengdu city	9950	8925
Guiyang city	9910	8850
Kunming City	9940	8880
Xi'an city	9715	8700
Xining City	9695	8735

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9350 yuan and 8300 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.