Gasoline (20230516): The downward adjustment window is about to materialize, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude
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May 16, 2023, 4:08 PM Gasoline: the downward adjustment window is about to be cashed, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood.
International crude oil closed
|
Date |
Market |
Specifications |
Close (US dollars / barrel) |
Rise and fall |
|
20230515 |
America |
WTI |
71.11 |
1.07 |
|
20230515 |
The United Kingdom |
Brent |
75.23 |
1.06 |
Gasoline price index
On May 16, China's gasoline price index fell 3.94, or 0.05%, to 8754.36, while China's gasoline price index fell 13.29, or 0.15%, to 9044.18. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 289.82.
Gasoline market analysis:
Today, the main wholesale price of gasoline in China has been sorted out in the price range in most areas, but the low-end prices of gasoline in Northeast China have declined, with a range of 50-150 yuan per ton. The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery has been raised in most areas and lowered in some areas. Among them, the gasoline prices of Shandong, North China, Central China, East China and Northwest China have increased by 30-70 yuan per ton, while those in Northeast China have been reduced by 100 yuan per ton. At present, the transaction in China's gasoline market is OK, there is phased replenishment behavior downstream, multi-rigid demand procurement. Refined oil downgrade window is about to open, the main refinery raised the price cautiously, but the georefining aspect by some products tax, quotation slightly upside. On the whole, the market is more quiet and other downgrades are realized, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.
|
May 16 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 5.15 |
Price 5.16 |
Rise and fall |
|
North China region |
92# |
8580-9000 |
8580-9000 |
0/0 |
|
95# |
8800-9300 |
8800-9300 |
0/0 |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8700-9100 |
8700-9100 |
0/0 |
|
95# |
8900-9400 |
8900-9400 |
0/0 |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8600-9000 |
8600-9000 |
0/0 |
|
95# |
8750-9200 |
8750-9200 |
0/0 |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8500-9000 |
8500-9000 |
0/0 |
|
95# |
8700-9100 |
8700-9100 |
0/0 |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8500-9650 |
8500-9650 |
0/0 |
|
95# |
8700-10450 |
8700-10450 |
0/0 |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8700-9120 |
8700-9120 |
0/0 |
|
95# |
8900-9350 |
8900-9350 |
0/0 |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8550-8950 |
8500-8950 |
-50/0 |
|
95# |
8950-9400 |
8800-9400 |
-150/0 |
|
|
The ex-factory price of gasoline refining on May 16 (RMB / ton) |
||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 5.15 |
Price 5.16 |
Rise and fall |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8090-8440 |
8160-8500 |
70/60 |
|
95# |
8190-8600 |
8260-8660 |
70/60 |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8210-8240 |
8270-8300 |
60/60 |
|
95# |
8310-8340 |
8370-8400 |
60/60 |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8450-8450 |
8480-8480 |
30/30 |
|
95# |
8650-8650 |
8680-8680 |
30/30 |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8190-8250 |
8230-8300 |
40/50 |
|
95# |
8340-8400 |
8380-8450 |
40/50 |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8050-8400 |
8100-8400 |
50/0 |
|
95# |
8200-8600 |
8200-8600 |
0/0 |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8550-8550 |
-100/0 |
|
95# |
8850-8850 |
8750-8750 |
-100/0 |
|
Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, the United States buys back the strategic oil reserve, coupled with a sharp decline in Saudi crude oil exports, the national crude oil supply is expected to tighten up, the international crude oil price has stopped falling and rising, and the international crude oil news is favorable. From the supply side, at present, the operating rate of China's main and local refineries is stable, and the gasoline spot resources are relatively abundant, supporting the normal operation of China's gasoline market. However, from the point of view of demand, the demand side remains relatively stable, the support for the gasoline market is limited, and the mentality of operators is cautious. While eliminating inventory, there is only rigid demand replenishment, which lowers market activity, and the buying and selling atmosphere is still weak. Taken together, it is expected that there are still downside risks in China's gasoline market prices in the short term.
Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities
Since 24:00 on April 28, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China have been reduced by RMB160,155 per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on April 28th, 2023, the 10th working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.
Schedule
Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities
Unit: yuan / ton
|
|
I. areas with one province and one price |
|
|
|
Gasoline (standard) |
Diesel oil (standard) |
|
Beijing |
9655 |
8620 |
|
Tianjin |
9620 |
8585 |
|
Hebei Province |
9620 |
8585 |
|
Shanxi province |
9690 |
8640 |
|
Liaoning province |
9620 |
8585 |
|
Jilin Province |
9620 |
8585 |
|
Heilongjiang province |
9620 |
8585 |
|
Shanghai |
9635 |
8590 |
|
Jiangsu Province |
9675 |
8625 |
|
Zhejiang Province |
9675 |
8640 |
|
Anhui province |
9670 |
8635 |
|
Fujian Province |
9695 |
8650 |
|
Jiangxi province |
9675 |
8645 |
|
Shandong province |
9630 |
8595 |
|
Hubei province |
9645 |
8610 |
|
Hunan Province |
9685 |
8670 |
|
Henan province |
9640 |
8605 |
|
Hainan province |
9765 |
8720 |
|
Chongqing |
9835 |
8795 |
|
Guangdong province |
9700 |
8655 |
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
9765 |
8720 |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
9625 |
8585 |
|
Gansu province |
9605 |
8605 |
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
9400 |
8480 |
|
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being |
||
|
|
Gasoline (standard) |
Diesel oil (standard) |
|
Hohhot |
9635 |
8600 |
|
Chengdu city |
9840 |
8820 |
|
Guiyang city |
9800 |
8745 |
|
Kunming City |
9830 |
8775 |
|
Xi'an city |
9605 |
8595 |
|
Xining City |
9585 |
8630 |
Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.
2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.
3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.
4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8890 yuan and 7855 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.