Analysis of natural rubber market price on May 17
index
On May 17, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1380/ton, up US$5/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.36%.
market analysis
Futures market: On May 17, the opening price of RU2309 contract: 12180 yuan/ton, the highest price: 12290 yuan/ton, the lowest price: 12165 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12255 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; The opening price of NR2307 contract: 9570 yuan/ton, the highest price: 9655 yuan/ton, the lowest price: 9540 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9605 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Thailand's production areas are basically in the early stages of cutting and have not been fully increased.
China: The rainfall and weather in China's production areas have improved recently. The opening of Yunnan production areas is around 2- 3%, and the opening of Hainan production areas is better than that of Yunnan.
|
price type
|
May 16
|
May 17
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
43.1
|
--
|
--
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
39.75
|
--
|
--
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
10200
|
10200
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
10300
|
10300
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
11300
|
11300
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
11600
|
11600
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
On the demand side: There is still a gap in domestic sales orders for tire companies. Coupled with the support of foreign trade orders, most companies are more motivated to start construction. In addition, the overall shipment performance of the company in the first half of the month was average. With the tire exhibition held and the company's policies followed up, downstream shipments may improve, and the company is actively starting work to ensure normal supply of products. In terms of the market, the market is severely polarized. Low-priced sources rely on their price advantages, and the market demand remains unchanged. The overall performance of other brands is relatively average.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
May 16
|
May 17
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
11950
|
11900
|
-50
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1375
|
1380
|
5
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
10650
|
10690
|
40
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
8400
|
8500
|
100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
9100
|
9100
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
futures prices
|
SHFE
|
RU main contract closing price
|
12200
|
12255
|
55
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
INE
|
NR main contract closing price
|
9550
|
9605
|
55
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
1550
|
1565
|
15
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
250
|
355
|
105
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
6.9764
|
7.0099
|
0.0335
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2126
|
0.212
|
-0.0006
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
The raw material glue in China's foreign producing areas has not yet fully entered the stage of increasing quantity, and there is still support on the cost side. From the perspective of rubber production, the supply of new rubber is relatively limited; the start of tires on the demand side has rebounded, but the terminal demand is close to the seasonal off-season in the Chinese market. There is pressure on the inventory of finished products in the tire factory, and the social inventory of Tianjiao still maintains a trend of accumulation. When supply and demand are weak, the market is porous, and rubber prices are expected to remain volatile.
