Analysis of global natural rubber production and consumption data in April 2023

Production data analysis

According to the monthly data report of the Global Natural Rubber Association (ANRPC), global natural rubber production in April 2023 was 896,000 tons, a decrease of 6.67% from the 960,000 tons in March and a year-on-year increase of 1.24%. In April, world natural rubber (NR) production is expected to continue to maintain an expected growth of 2.7% in 2023, reaching 14.916 million tons.

Global natural rubber production continued to decline in April, falling to 896,000 tons. It is understood that the decline in production in April may be caused by the high temperatures during the seasonal defoliation period. In April, parts of Asia and Southeast Asia experienced varying degrees of high temperatures and low rainfall, and some countries issued warnings on the risks of heat stroke, potential drought and crop failure. It is understood that this year, the US climate agency announced that the probability of El Niño occurring in August exceeds 90%, and this year may become the hottest year.

Consumption data analysis

According to the monthly data report of the Global Natural Rubber Association (ANRPC), global natural rubber consumption in April 2023 was 1.241 million tons, a decrease of 5.41% from 1.312 million tons in March and a year-on-year increase of 3.07%. In April, global natural rubber demand is expected to continue to contract by 0.4% to 14.912 million tons in 2023.

Consumption fell in most ANRPC member states and the rest of the world, including China and India, the countries with the highest consumption. Although the International Monetary Fund raised China's economy by 0.8 percentage points to 5.2% in 2023, China's manufacturing purchasing managers 'index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics has unexpectedly dropped to 49.2 in April, below the 50-point mark that distinguishes monthly contraction from monthly expansion. A senior statistician from the National Bureau of Statistics explained that insufficient market demand and high base effects caused by the rapid recovery of manufacturing in the first quarter led to the economic contraction in April. In China's auto industry, new car sales also fell from 2.451 million in March to 2.159 million in April as price cuts and incentives waned. This is in line with China's natural rubber consumption of 532,000 tons in April, slightly lower than the 553,000 tons in March.

However, compared with China, India's consumption fell only slightly. According to the Economic Times, Standard & Poor's Global India manufacturing PMI rose to 57.2 in April, reflecting a strong and rapid expansion of new orders and production growth for the month due to improved supply chains, improved international sales and moderate price pressures. On the other hand, India's passenger car industry showed signs of slowing in April, with car sales falling 1.3% to 331000 units compared with March. According to conclusive data to be released by India, China's demand for rubber is expected to drop slightly from 120,000 tons in March to 118,000 tons in April. Given the slowdown in growth in China and India, two major NR consumers, global natural rubber demand decreased month-on-month in April.

Note: Global natural rubber consumption data statistics are based on the latest data and are for reference only. nbsp;