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PVC: Futures saw that his building had collapsed, and the futures price kept falling and hit a new low, and the spot market weakened significantly.

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May 22, 2023, 4:02 PM


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PVCA é °è 'e / e / s / s:é é éPVC市场主流成交价格周初即开始。现货市场转弱明显。估价对比来看:其中华北地区下跌70-100元/吨,华东地区下跌70-100元/吨,华南地区下跌90元/吨,东北地区下跌50元/吨,华中地区下跌50元/吨,西南地区下跌50元/吨。首先上游PVC生产企业出厂报价普遍下调50-100元/吨,部分厂家跌幅较大。期货下跌明显,贸易商报盘一口价对比上周五下跌较多,并且偏高报盘无人问津且难成交,期价下跌后点价货源优势较为明显,但因期价下行较大基差报盘小幅走强,其中华东地区基差报盘09合约-(50-100),华南地区09合约-(0-50),北方地区09合约-(400),西南地区09合约-(150)。现货市场下游需方低位挂单,集中在期货盘面5700附近存在一定的成交,整体的虽有补货行为但现货市场并未呈现较好的交投,反而不温不火的局面刚需采购为主。

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°é è 'conductor é é °conductorPVC09合约期价的运行跌跌不休再创本年底新的低位,恰如眼看他起高楼,眼看他宴宾客,眼看他楼塌了。期价的下行击穿布林带(13、13、2)下轨出现深跌,并且三轨开口扩大中下轨向下趋势明显,日线级别的KD(9、9、3)成死叉走势,因此整体的技术层面显示期价仍旧存在进一步下行的趋势。成交方面来看资金更加倾向于空开,其中空开26.4%多开22.3%处于明显的压制中。目前PVC的基本面也未出现较多的支撑因素,偏弱依旧,并且迭代大宗商品整体的走弱涨少跌多,PVC走势愈加偏空。因此期价的运行压力仍存,目前的运行趋势观察前低位置5484点位,但深跌后的短线或存在小调整的可能。

A °é è 'recent recent host é host é í í í é期货盘面的走弱导致现货市场价格大幅下行,并且价格的下行也并未带来较好的成交,从一定层面预示着产业链需方对于目前的现货价格下极少存在抄底行为,因此并未出现投机性需求,社会库存仍旧按照刚需去库来对待。这也是基本面上难以支撑期现两市的主因,空头的筹码一直是需求不佳供应稳定且海外需求目前也存在很大的竞争趋势,美国氯碱产品对中国的攻击较大且有价格优势,因此低迷的中国PVC基本面导致了期现两市价格跌跌不休。外盘方面国际油价下跌,因投资者担心美国政界人士将无法就新的债务上限达成一致并引发违约,从而损害经济并减少燃料需求。美联储主席表示通胀“远高于”美联储目标的言论也令市场感到震惊,并补充称尚未就下一次利率行动做出任何决定。综合来看短期之内PVC现货市场仍会继续低位运行。

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