Analysis of natural rubber market price on May 24
index
On May 24, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1350/ton, down US$25/ton from the previous trading day, or 1.82%.
market analysis
Futures market: On May 24, the opening price of RU2309 contract: 12010 yuan/ton, the highest price: 12015 yuan/ton, the lowest price: 11780 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11800 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; The opening price of NR2307 contract: 9595 yuan/ton, the highest price: 9660 yuan/ton, the lowest price: 9415 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9415 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: The production areas of Thailand and Vietnam are basically in the early stages of cutting, and have not been fully increased, and the output of raw materials is relatively limited.
China: China's production areas have recently resumed harvesting. Hainan's harvesting situation is still better than Yunnan, and the price difference between raw materials between the two regions is large.
|
price type
|
May 23
|
May 24
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
43.8
|
43.9
|
0.1
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
39.9
|
39.8
|
-0.1
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
10600
|
10600
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
10700
|
10700
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
12200
|
11900
|
-300
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
12200
|
11900
|
-300
|
Yuan/ton
|
On the demand side: The capacity utilization rate of tire companies remains relatively high, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires at about 67%, and the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires at about 77%. The start-up performance of semi-steel tire companies is significantly stronger than that of all-steel tires. At present, export orders are relatively sufficient, which provides certain support for enterprises to start construction. The overall domestic shipment performance is average.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
May 23
|
May 24
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
11850
|
11700
|
-150
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1375
|
1350
|
-25
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
10650
|
10500
|
-150
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
8500
|
8500
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
9100
|
9000
|
-100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
futures prices
|
SHFE
|
RU main contract closing price
|
11975
|
11800
|
-175
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
INE
|
NR main contract closing price
|
9590
|
9415
|
-175
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
1325
|
1300
|
-25
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
125
|
100
|
-25
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.0671
|
7.0746
|
0.0075
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2109
|
0.2119
|
0.0010
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
The output of raw materials in the main production areas of Thailand and Vietnam abroad was limited in the early stage of cutting. The production areas of Yunnan in China had not yet been fully cut due to the influence of powdery mildew. Hainan's output is in a narrow range of increasing quantities, and there is still support on the cost side. Judging from the rubber production, the supply of new rubber is relatively limited, and the insufficient supply of self-produced products is to a certain extent the growth rate of full latex warehouse receipts; On the demand side, foreign trade orders are supported, and tire starts have rebounded. However, terminal demand is close to the seasonal off-season in the Chinese market. There is accumulated pressure on the inventory of finished products in tire factories. Recently, the market has been bearish and cautious.
