[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Weekly Review (May 25)

Figure 1: Shandong market price of STR20 MIX                                      Figure 2: Zhejiang market price of ordinary bulk imported from Thailand   

dry rubber

This week, the output of raw materials in the main foreign production areas of Thailand and Vietnam was limited at the beginning of the opening of cutting. China's Yunnan production areas have not yet been fully cut due to the impact of powdery mildew. Hainan's output is in a narrow range of increasing quantities, and there is still support on the cost side. Judging from the amount of rubber production, the supply of new rubber is relatively limited, and the insufficient supply of self-produced products is to a certain extent the growth rate of full latex warehouse receipts; On the demand side, foreign trade orders are supported, and tire starts have rebounded. However, terminal demand is close to the seasonal off-season in the Chinese market. There is accumulated pressure on the finished product inventory of tire factories, and the market has been bearish recently.

natural latex

The overall spot price of concentrated milk in the port fluctuated little this week and did not continue last week's rise as scheduled. This week, the concentrated milk market was basically in a relatively calm state. The upstream supply side increased in volume, and downstream shipments remained weak. The overall supply and demand side did not change significantly.

Market outlook forecast:

1、中国producing areas物候情况基本上好转，截止目前处于正常状态，后期上量预期明显；海外producing areas新胶上量缓慢；

2、预计下周期轮胎开工率仍存小幅走低可能。目前各轮胎企业外贸新订单量表现不一，5月份整体出货环比表现走弱，库存缓慢抬升。部分以内销为主的企业，成品库存逐步承压，下周期或6月份存检修可能，将对整体样本开工形成一定拖拽；

3、青岛地区库存出入库缓和，去库拐点或将临近；

4、宏观扰动，国家收储消息尚未落地。