Gasoline Special Issue-20230525
109,763 
May 25, 2023, 5:48 PM
Gasoline Special issue-20230525 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20230518 |
71.86 |
75.86 |
74.99 |
75.32 |
514 |
-4 |
0.54 |
|
20230524 |
74.34 |
78.36 |
77.95 |
76.61 |
523.6 |
-4.02 |
1.75 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
3.45% |
3.30% |
3.95% |
1.71% |
1.87% |
0.50% |
224.07% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20230518-20230525) the wholesale price of gasoline in all regions of China was raised as a whole, with a range of 50-150 yuan per ton. The ex-factory prices of georefining in most areas have been raised, and the prices in some areas have been stable. Among them, the price increases in Shandong, Central China, East China and Northwest China are concentrated in the range of 30-80 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in North China and Northeast China remain stable for the time being. At the same time, there are periodic replenishment behavior. 3. the transaction atmosphere is getting better, the main units and local refineries take advantage of the opportunity to push prices, and the preferential policies are flexible. 4. According to the data of the Automobile Association, the market share of new energy gasoline increased in April, from 26.1% in March to 29.55% in April, and the pressure on the traditional gasoline market increased. Overall, the buying and selling atmosphere in the gasoline market this week is better than last week.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of May 25, China's gasoline price index stood at 8771.63, up 73.08% or 0.84% from last week. The gasoline price index was 9051.93, up 60.40 or 0.67% from last week. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both raised, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 280.30.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 5.24 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8580-9000 |
8600-9050 |
20/50 |
0.23%/0.56% |
|
95# |
8780-9200 |
8800-9200 |
20/0 |
0.23%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8800-9150 |
8800-9200 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.55% |
|
95# |
9000-9450 |
9000-9500 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.53% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8600-9000 |
8650-9000 |
50/0 |
0.58%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-9200 |
8800-9200 |
50/0 |
0.57%/0.00% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8550-9000 |
8600-9000 |
50/0 |
0.58%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-9180 |
8850-9180 |
50/0 |
0.57%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8550-9470 |
8650-9470 |
100/0 |
1.17%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-10030 |
8900-10030 |
150/0 |
1.71%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8850-9150 |
8950-9200 |
100/50 |
1.13%/0.55% |
|
95# |
9100-9600 |
9100-9650 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.52% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8480-8700 |
8480-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-9150 |
8830-9150 |
30/0 |
0.34%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 5.24 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8250-8550 |
8290-8600 |
40/50 |
0.48%/0.58% |
|
95# |
8350-8750 |
8400-8800 |
50/50 |
0.60%/0.57% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8300-8420 |
8300-8420 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8400-8520 |
8400-8520 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8620-8620 |
8700-8700 |
80/80 |
0.93%/0.93% |
|
95# |
8820-8820 |
8900-8900 |
80/80 |
0.91%/0.91% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8320-8400 |
8390-8430 |
70/30 |
0.84%/0.36% |
|
95# |
8470-8520 |
8540-8580 |
70/60 |
0.83%/0.70% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8400-8650 |
8450-8700 |
50/50 |
0.60%/0.58% |
|
95# |
8600-8850 |
8650-8900 |
50/50 |
0.58%/0.56% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8550-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-8750 |
8750-8750 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8600-8700 |
8600-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9050-9150 |
9050-9150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8510-8650 |
8540-8650 |
30/0 |
0.35%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-8950 |
8830-8950 |
30/0 |
0.34%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8650-8650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8530-8700 |
8600-8800 |
70/100 |
0.82%/1.15% |
|
95# |
8730-8900 |
8800-9000 |
70/100 |
0.80%/1.12% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8900-9000 |
9000-9000 |
100/0 |
1.12%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9080-9350 |
9180-9350 |
100/0 |
1.10%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8750-8750 |
50/50 |
0.57%/0.57% |
|
95# |
8900-9000 |
9000-9050 |
100/50 |
1.12%/0.56% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8550-8750 |
8700-8900 |
150/150 |
1.75%/1.71% |
|
95# |
8750-8900 |
8900-9100 |
150/200 |
1.71%/2.25% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8800-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-9200 |
9000-9200 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8900-9000 |
8800-9000 |
-100/0 |
-1.12%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9200 |
9000-9200 |
-100/0 |
-1.10%/0.00% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8650-8900 |
8700-8750 |
50/-150 |
0.58%/-1.69% |
|
95# |
8850-9200 |
8900-9100 |
50/-100 |
0.56%/-1.09% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8650-9350 |
8800-9350 |
150/0 |
1.73%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9700 |
9000-9700 |
100/0 |
1.12%/0.00% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8750-8750 |
100/100 |
1.16%/1.16% |
|
95# |
8850-8850 |
8950-8950 |
100/100 |
1.13%/1.13% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8850-8900 |
9000-9050 |
150/150 |
1.69%/1.69% |
|
95# |
9050-9100 |
9200-9250 |
150/150 |
1.66%/1.65% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8550-8630 |
8550-8700 |
0/70 |
0.00%/0.81% |
|
95# |
8750-8830 |
8750-8900 |
0/70 |
0.00%/0.79% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8680-8700 |
8680-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-9100 |
8800-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8590-8745 |
8790-8930 |
200/185 |
2.33%/2.12% |
|
95# |
8790-8965 |
8850-9130 |
60/165 |
0.68%/1.84% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8640-8800 |
8650-8830 |
10/30 |
0.12%/0.34% |
|
95# |
8840-9100 |
8850-9130 |
10/30 |
0.11%/0.33% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8850-9100 |
8850-9200 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.10% |
|
95# |
9100-9400 |
9100-9500 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.06% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
8750-8900 |
8750-8900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9100 |
8950-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8700-8770 |
8700-8800 |
0/30 |
0.00%/0.34% |
|
95# |
8900-8970 |
8900-9070 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.11% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8500-8500 |
8700-7700 |
200/200 |
2.35%/2.35% |
|
95# |
8700-8700 |
8900-8900 |
200/200 |
2.30%/2.30% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9243-9243 |
9243-9243 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9766-9766 |
9766-9766 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8500-9470 |
8650-9470 |
150/0 |
1.76%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10032-10032 |
10032-10032 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9575-9575 |
9575-9575 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9975-9975 |
9975-9975 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8500-9000 |
8700-9000 |
200/0 |
2.35%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8700-9340 |
8900-9340 |
200/0 |
2.30%/0.00% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8880-8880 |
80/80 |
0.91%/0.91% |
|
95# |
9200-9200 |
9280-9280 |
80/80 |
0.87%/0.87% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9020-9120 |
9020-9200 |
0/80 |
0.00%/0.88% |
|
95# |
9470-9570 |
9470-9650 |
0/80 |
0.00%/0.84% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
8900-9000 |
9050-9150 |
150/150 |
1.69%/1.67% |
|
95# |
9150-9250 |
9250-9400 |
100/150 |
1.09%/1.62% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8950-9000 |
150/0 |
1.70%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9250 |
9250-9250 |
150/0 |
1.65%/0.00% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9000-9000 |
9000-9050 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.56% |
|
95# |
9300-9300 |
9300-9350 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.54% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8730-8830 |
8850-8950 |
120/120 |
1.37%/1.36% |
|
95# |
9030-9100 |
9100-9200 |
70/100 |
0.78%/1.10% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8550-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-8750 |
8750-8750 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8230-8350 |
8390-8430 |
160/80 |
1.94%/0.96% |
|
95# |
8380-8500 |
8540-8580 |
160/80 |
1.91%/0.94% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8510-8510 |
8510-8510 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8680-8680 |
8680-8680 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8250-8300 |
8300-8420 |
50/120 |
0.61%/1.45% |
|
95# |
8350-8400 |
8400-8520 |
50/120 |
0.60%/1.43% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8100-8450 |
8290-8600 |
190/150 |
2.35%/1.78% |
|
95# |
8200-8650 |
8400-8800 |
200/150 |
2.44%/1.73% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.18 |
Price 5.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8100-8200 |
8200-8500 |
100/300 |
1.23%/3.66% |
|
95# |
8200-8350 |
8300-8650 |
100/300 |
1.22%/3.59% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8400-8400 |
8700-8700 |
300/300 |
3.57%/3.57% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8900-8900 |
300/300 |
3.49%/3.49% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8500-8500 |
8900-8900 |
400/400 |
4.71%/4.71% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, US crude oil inventories fell more than expected, coupled with the market optimism about the Fed's interest rate hike, crude oil prices rose again, boosting the oil market. From the perspective of China's macro policy, the current rebound in international crude oil prices has broken through previous expectations, and a new round of retail price increases in refined oil products are expected to increase, which is a positive guide. From the demand point of view, although there is a phased replenishment behavior, but after the end of replenishment, there are no outstanding positive factors, only the summer vehicle air-conditioning fuel consumption is OK, support is general. Taken together, China's gasoline market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20230518-20230525) the weekly operating rate of the main refinery was 75.64%, while the maintenance capacity of some areas of independent refineries increased, with a weekly operating rate of 63.09%, down 1.96% from last week.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.1872 million tons, China's main output is 2.2473 million tons, China's independent refineries output 939900 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 988200 tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.6358 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 268.81 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit
1152.03 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 408 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit 12 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 395 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 11, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 8, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 9, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
September 5, 2023 |
October 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Rotation inspection |
2000 |
June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
Early June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 20, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Coking |
120 |
May 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
350 |
June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 2023 |
To be determined |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
June 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
May 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
July 26, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
Early May 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
100 |
March 31, 2023 |
April 15, 2023 |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |