[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (May 29)
115,808 
May 29, 2023, 3:56 PM Analysis of natural rubber market price on May 29
index
On May 29, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1375/ton, up US$5/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.36%.
market analysis
Futures market: On May 29, the opening price of RU2309 contract: 11880 yuan/ton, the highest price: 11950 yuan/ton, the lowest price: 11825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11915 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; The opening price of NR2308 contract: 9530 yuan/ton, the highest price: 9605 yuan/ton, the lowest price: 9495 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9550 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: The production areas of Thailand and Vietnam are basically in the early stages of cutting, and have not been fully increased, and the output of raw materials is relatively limited.
China: China's production areas are basically in the stage of beginning to harvest and increasing production. The output of raw materials in Yunnan's production areas has also gradually improved. I heard that local dense dairy factories will start construction in the near future.
|
price type |
May 26 |
May 29 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
raw material prices |
Thailand |
glue |
43.6 |
43.6 |
0 |
baht/kg |
|
cup glue |
39.95 |
38.95 |
-1 |
baht/kg |
||
|
Yunnan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
10600 |
10600 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
rubber block |
10700 |
10700 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Hainan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
11400 |
11400 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory) |
11400 |
11400 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
On the demand side: The capacity utilization rate of tire companies remains relatively high, but after mid-term, some companies have introduced profit-making policies, which are mostly bundled with the volume of tasks. Only a few agents have completed excessive tasks and received the policy, resulting in agents having average enthusiasm for purchasing goods and digesting inventories. Mainly, terminal demand has not improved significantly. Coupled with the downward trend in raw material prices, the industry has become more bearish about tire prices.
Futures spot price list
|
price type |
May 26 |
May 29 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
price of finished products |
Shandong |
China All Latex |
11550 |
11700 |
150 |
Yuan/ton |
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 standard glue |
1370 |
1375 |
5 |
us dollars/ton |
|
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
10560 |
10600 |
40 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Hainan |
8400 |
8400 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk |
8950 |
8950 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
futures prices |
SHFE |
RU main contract closing price |
11745 |
11915 |
170 |
Yuan/ton |
|
INE |
NR main contract closing price |
9575 |
9550 |
-25 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
the current price difference |
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
1185 |
1315 |
130 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Main force-China All Latex |
195 |
215 |
20 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
relevant exchange rate |
us dollar against the RMB |
7.0881 |
7.0856 |
-0.0025 |
Yuan |
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB |
0.2113 |
0.2106 |
-0.0007 |
Yuan |
||
market outlook
The recent phenological conditions in the upstream producing areas have been relatively normal, and rubber tapping work in other producing areas in China is also being carried out one after another, and the supply increase is expected to continue to increase. The arrival of goods from the port has increased. Compared with the downstream receiving of goods, Qingdao's inventory is not expected to be removed from the warehouse, and it will still maintain a accumulated warehouse in the short term. While the terminal market has entered the off-season of sales, new orders and goods are sluggish, and downstream procurement still There are plans to shorten the procurement cycle. In the short term, the positive release of the natural rubber market is too limited, and rubber prices are likely to fluctuate.